Australia's Capital Cities

Thursday, July 09, 2015

AUSTRALIA’S CAPITAL CITIES: GROWTH, CHANGE & A FUTURE FORECAST

CAPITAL CITIES

Over 66% of Australians live in the greater metropolitan area of Australia’s 8 capital cities with Sydney being the largest (around 4.9 million), followed by Melbourne (4.5 million). Darwin is Australia’s smallest capital city, with a current population of around 144,000. The nation’s capital, Canberra, has a population of 394,000, larger than Darwin and Hobart combined.

The title of fastest growing city is held by Perth which has recorded 3.05% per year for the past 5 years whilst Hobart has the lowest rate of growth of only 0.67% per year over the same period. Sydney and Melbourne recorded growth of 1.5% and 1.95% per year over respectively.

In terms of population increase, Melbourne comes up on top with an increase of 95,655 people in the last year while Hobart only had an increase of 1,247 people in the same period. In fact Melbourne is growing by more people every 5 days than Hobart adds in an entire year. Sydney recorded an increase of 84,230 people in the last year and based on this increase will be Australia’s first city to reach 5 million, a milestone it will achieve by the middle of 2016.

However, at a state level there have been significant changes over the last 3 years in the population growth rate across Australia. Western Australia, which was the fastest growing state has seen this annual growth rate more than halve from a peak of 3.68% in 2012 to just 1.58% currently. Over the same period of time, Queensland’s growth has also declined significantly from 2.0% to 1.37% now, while Victoria’s consistent population growth rate of 1.75% makes it the fastest growing of any Australian state or territory.

Sydney has a population approximately 400,000 larger than Melbourne’s but Melbourne is growing by over 10,000 more people than Sydney year on year. Assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows, Melbourne will take Sydney’s title of Australia’s largest city in 2053 with both cities expected to reach a population of 8 million in 2055.

Perth’s rate of growth will see it overtake Brisbane in 2029 when they both have a population of just over 3 million. They currently have a population of 2.1 million and 2.3 million respectively.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT URBAN AREAS

The Gold Coast – Tweed Heads area has the largest population outside of the capital cities (almost 630,000) and also registered the largest increase in number of residents in 2009 to 2014. The 2nd largest urban area is the Newcastle – Maitland area but the Sunshine Coast had the 2nd largest increase in population even though they are ranked 4th in terms of population size. The City of Dubbo, with a population of 36,622 is the smallest of Australia’s significant urban areas.

Launceston recorded the lowest smallest rate of population increase between 2009 and 2014, growing by only 0.35% per year but they are ranked 13th in overall population, out of 32 significant urban areas. The Traralgon – Morwell area was the only area to experience a population decline with a decrease in population of 28 between 2013 and 2014.

On the other end of the scale, Ellenbrook is the fastest growing urban area by far, recorded growth of 8.35% per year between 2009 and 2014 followed by Melton which recorded growth of 5.32% per year over the same period.

AUSTRALIA'S CAPITALS: POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Sydney

  • Reach 5m in 2016, 6m in 2029, 7m in 2042, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.23%

Melbourne

  • Reach 5m in 2021, 6m in 2032, 7m in 2043, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.44%

Brisbane

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2047
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.6%

Adelaide

  • Reach 1.5m in 2027
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.83%

Perth

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2042, 5m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 2.14%

Hobart

  • Reach 250,000 in 2034
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.47%

Darwin

  • Reach 200,000 in 2048
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.08%

Sydney vs Melbourne

  • Melbourne will overtake Sydney for the title of largest Australian city in 2053

Brisbane vs Perth

  • Perth will overtake Brisbane for the title of 3rd largest Australian city in 2029

*Data assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows.

Sources: ABS, McCrindle

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

digital "know the times" workshop schools Word Up data visualisation tableau new office faux-cilise future-proof internships wages meetings forum plans tea Queensland: QLD litter Territory lifestyle Bathburst teaching population map land of the middle class kate middleton Valentine’s Day Australian schools professional services life slideshare collaboration Geoff Brailey average aussie balance mover and shaker darwin Melbourne personalities supply and demand builders shbc DIY social lives GPO ageing population 24 million weekly earnings urban living index cash Merry Christmas church census 2016 greatness interactive trades trend travelling princess charlotte townhouses case study shifts student easy rider program celebration 1980 national private wealth New South Wales follow crows nest education sector Australian Dream bondi community leadership workshop twentyseventeen australia Australian Population socialites focus groups Western Australia sector wide analysis curiosity population growth social analysis Australian Home real communication society trends Australian Communities Trends group session tertiary education World Water Day HSC skills millennials financial investment priorities 1975 customer Kirsten Brewer young australians home ownership population trends quote school students NBRS Architecture collaborative emerging trends affordability resource Adelaide suburb Financial Planning Week woolworths owning a home social shifts census fail conference presentation volunteers housing affordability urban baby boomers buildings earn Gen Y safe omnibus long weekend christian Christmas presents geomapping 1994 REIV Conference goal christmas dessert waverton Financial Planning Association of Australia NSW leader repayments house new york times house price rise English wage demographer marketing ashley mckenzie politics parenting public holiday online rising house prices event income cancel plans google for education social life future tv renting events hello fresh marriages gold coast future proof sydney event marrickville media release culturally diverse 1968 Wagga Wagga Hills Shire Council insights Crime Rates property price thrive world capital cities lalor park growth emerging technologies report pharmacies wealth and income distribution university ashley fell sector Northern Beaches Channel 7 tips Netflix ACF economic media commentary results year 12 menai presentation research TDE friends criminal EFF Wodonga visual WA property aged care teachers australians staying home more potts point work-life Duchess of Cambridge Generation Y village ideas students The Daily Edition environment Australian Families investor divorce rate brand experience Assistant Store Manager young people 2012 Real Estate Institute of Victoria housing australian communities trends report research visualisation publication not-for-profit google public speaker acf15 sunny days Vocational education economy entrepreneurial megatrends social researchers household research report going out infographic eliane miles earning social change debate dream NT New Zealand FPA medicine SMART employers ACT sports innovation Population Clock consumer study Do It Yourself unaffordable professional development daily telegraph motivate royal technology online shopping affordable vegemite 2020 high density living faux-cilising royal family CBD keynote moreton bay typical australian generation generations JOMO South Australia networking Res Vis commute father's day the australian dream anzac house price Northern Territory the hills outsourcing System's Architect moderators guide goals annual income optus my business awards parents organisational culture media activity Tuesday Trend gen z millionth year 7 budget 10 years aussie culture post rationalism resilience christianity DESTEL property market baby Research Executive debt crime Christmas lunch Scouts rain baby name data analyst the average aussie in depth interviews jobs of the future food school state selfie teacher cancelling plans belief relevant neutral bay speakers James Ward monarchy brand learn millenials hopes mortgage breakfast sector wide study mccrindle in the media Australian demographics emerging generations Real Estate global newspaper define professional speaker teach spend baby names australia report VET sector McCrindle Speakers business index increasing densification snapshot Northern beaches Event retirement baby name predictions spirituality January 26th fresh internet gender coffee statistics stay home list manly Engineering Manager cooking Social Trend charity mythbusting demographic trends logan cold SA local communities low density Northern Beaches Christian School Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Census shopping women Education Future Forum families marriage community engagement socialising baby names perth Births workforce mateship sunburnt country conference speaker deloitte learning styles organisations small business suburbs mining boom grave decision business Financial Planning Association norwest commuters The ABC of XYZ equip bureau consumerism forecasting community event workplace challenge brands conferences 2015 Work place the hills shire schools students clothing city meals royal baby communities global generations offenders social research product demographic transformations living high density apartments futurist states communicate visualisation 2016 census results financial future Macquarie University identity data business performance social issues Generation X personal growth university degree mccrindle research February 16 faux-ciliser non profit toys educhat 2013 Skilling research services thought leadership winter engagement winter blues water video generation Z housing trends train Australian communities click sun education participants REIV National Conference local proactive Sydney keynote speaker financial independence ipswich poker master 2016 professional blaxland home prince george learner sustainable FOMO suburban living apartment rent workplace culture story Aussies infographic wall Deaths optimistic language tuesday domestic narcissism stats Wellington Love 2014 census results poor #censusfail award winner transport school satisfaction sydneycity Australia Day 2017 ACF 2016 education research baby boom baby name trends society global financial crisis future proofing Aussie grandparents group ferry not for profit housing growth holidays fears forecast easter Charlotte NBRS engage ease of travel sydney metro entertainment Queensland research pack home owner national crime rates overcast divorce education future couple social commentator sydneysiders Myth know the times seasons cars IT Specialists healthy future Christchurch social enquiry Caregiver youth car etiquette financial fears children research data growing population middle class responsive finance authenticity social commentary office opening royal influence house prices New Zeland generational trends survey design sentiments aged care puzzle culture entrepreneur innovative work mates investing sydney hills Channel Seven 23 million rental stress tattoos Andrew Duffin learning jobs pharmacy cost Sydney summer national wealth mentor rich unemployment hills shire australian social research Hornsby Shire Council TAS mobile change trends analyst trend tuesday media facts recap contiki Royals office space optus Kiwi social high school population milestone office dreaming wellbeing salary market research Canberra wealth and income 2017 social impact leadership employment Australian Trends alpha mythbusters nfp australian communities forum Christmas season 24,000,000 religion census sydney speaker Gen X mother's day wealth the changing face of award faith bus ethnography 40 million ABS rule keeper weather households vegetarian baby names report dare to dream NEETs environmental scanning career cultural diversity in the media energy urban taskforce ageing demographics hornsby wolloomooloo keynote speaker internship daily commute men teleworking child care Australia Day educated mccrindle Tuesday Trends social trends victoria training huffington post Mark McCrindle shopper's pick family cloudy days social researcher staff Sydney Hills Business Chamber experience relational holiday 2016 census conference trends of 2017 renter of the future qualitative research government mccrindle tea cartodb staying in travel Tasmania VIC rise of local entrepreneurs of today eliane careers future of education VET names public speaking pyrmont housing market focus group high density area trends of 2016 cancelling event PSI news panel ultimo brisbane survey happiness hobart cost of living storytelling Australians generation alpha future of work SMSF wedding residents presentations financial dreams communications education future report social media world youth day intern graphs paying to work friendship work wealth distribution gen alpha changing face of sydney capital city demographic insight youth unemployment urban living researcher earnings

Archive