Australia's Capital Cities

Thursday, July 09, 2015

AUSTRALIA’S CAPITAL CITIES: GROWTH, CHANGE & A FUTURE FORECAST

CAPITAL CITIES

Over 66% of Australians live in the greater metropolitan area of Australia’s 8 capital cities with Sydney being the largest (around 4.9 million), followed by Melbourne (4.5 million). Darwin is Australia’s smallest capital city, with a current population of around 144,000. The nation’s capital, Canberra, has a population of 394,000, larger than Darwin and Hobart combined.

The title of fastest growing city is held by Perth which has recorded 3.05% per year for the past 5 years whilst Hobart has the lowest rate of growth of only 0.67% per year over the same period. Sydney and Melbourne recorded growth of 1.5% and 1.95% per year over respectively.

In terms of population increase, Melbourne comes up on top with an increase of 95,655 people in the last year while Hobart only had an increase of 1,247 people in the same period. In fact Melbourne is growing by more people every 5 days than Hobart adds in an entire year. Sydney recorded an increase of 84,230 people in the last year and based on this increase will be Australia’s first city to reach 5 million, a milestone it will achieve by the middle of 2016.

However, at a state level there have been significant changes over the last 3 years in the population growth rate across Australia. Western Australia, which was the fastest growing state has seen this annual growth rate more than halve from a peak of 3.68% in 2012 to just 1.58% currently. Over the same period of time, Queensland’s growth has also declined significantly from 2.0% to 1.37% now, while Victoria’s consistent population growth rate of 1.75% makes it the fastest growing of any Australian state or territory.

Sydney has a population approximately 400,000 larger than Melbourne’s but Melbourne is growing by over 10,000 more people than Sydney year on year. Assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows, Melbourne will take Sydney’s title of Australia’s largest city in 2053 with both cities expected to reach a population of 8 million in 2055.

Perth’s rate of growth will see it overtake Brisbane in 2029 when they both have a population of just over 3 million. They currently have a population of 2.1 million and 2.3 million respectively.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT URBAN AREAS

The Gold Coast – Tweed Heads area has the largest population outside of the capital cities (almost 630,000) and also registered the largest increase in number of residents in 2009 to 2014. The 2nd largest urban area is the Newcastle – Maitland area but the Sunshine Coast had the 2nd largest increase in population even though they are ranked 4th in terms of population size. The City of Dubbo, with a population of 36,622 is the smallest of Australia’s significant urban areas.

Launceston recorded the lowest smallest rate of population increase between 2009 and 2014, growing by only 0.35% per year but they are ranked 13th in overall population, out of 32 significant urban areas. The Traralgon – Morwell area was the only area to experience a population decline with a decrease in population of 28 between 2013 and 2014.

On the other end of the scale, Ellenbrook is the fastest growing urban area by far, recorded growth of 8.35% per year between 2009 and 2014 followed by Melton which recorded growth of 5.32% per year over the same period.

AUSTRALIA'S CAPITALS: POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Sydney

  • Reach 5m in 2016, 6m in 2029, 7m in 2042, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.23%

Melbourne

  • Reach 5m in 2021, 6m in 2032, 7m in 2043, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.44%

Brisbane

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2047
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.6%

Adelaide

  • Reach 1.5m in 2027
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.83%

Perth

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2042, 5m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 2.14%

Hobart

  • Reach 250,000 in 2034
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.47%

Darwin

  • Reach 200,000 in 2048
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.08%

Sydney vs Melbourne

  • Melbourne will overtake Sydney for the title of largest Australian city in 2053

Brisbane vs Perth

  • Perth will overtake Brisbane for the title of 3rd largest Australian city in 2029

*Data assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows.

Sources: ABS, McCrindle

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

eliane miles seasons teacher 1975 earn February 16 google for education Res Vis ACF 2016 royal family Financial Planning Week baby boomers learning the hills brands blaxland poor not for profit optus my business awards menai state entrepreneurs of today crime micro cultural diveristy shopping centre research report baby school students Research Director conference not-for-profit money Scouts volunteer Australian Bureau of Statistics 2015 James Ward toys census mobile careers family Duchess of Cambridge repayments optus The Daily Edition property market capital cities sustainable jobs of the future World Water Day internship Northern beaches Event google group financial Real Estate Institute of Victoria speaker stay home australian real estate apartments young people tertiary education Mark McCrindle non profit baby names environmental scanning average Australian Channel 7 friends housing trends school satisfaction mccrindle research know the times breakfast EFF men Tuesday Trend neutral bay jobs outsourcing buildings GPO research data Engineering Manager 2020 sector overcast wealth and income distribution optimistic gold coast Aussies Adelaide new office dreaming Australian Communities Trends university population growth politics home employment experience emerging generations events live the dream slideshare curiosity property FPA change personalities states social commentator qualitative research cica sydney speaker commute national wealth innovative house prices Kiwi builders happiness organisational culture education sector annual income house price rise in the media wealth and income keynote Royals charity rise of local healthy future earning Real Estate Netflix property price Sydney ABS local communities school dream ashley mckenzie mover and shaker father's day the average aussie friendship sun thought leadership conferences Queensland: QLD customer internships office space award winner teach aussie culture workplace culture ultimo high school Australian Population trades demographer mentor Queensland Deaths travelling greatness housing etiquette communication Tuesday Trends ageing logan forum alpha list showreel average sydneysider DIY researcher CBD victoria Love data demographics high density living TDE royal storytelling weekly earnings Channel Seven New Zealand 2016 census media omnibus results visual fresh Christmas lunch marriages ease of travel mining boom digital Northern Beaches demographic transformations research visualisation entrepreneur local online shopping new york times housing affordability Australian Families identity tattoos NSW marketing safe WA christianity lifestyle in depth interviews cancel plans debt Financial Planning Association of Australia goals growing population communities investor sector wide socialising sydney hills generation generational trends sunburnt country 2013 home ownership Territory insights education research marriage research education future report communicate cancelling event Wagga Wagga wealth public speaker investment australia generation alpha census fail mother's day university degree group session screenage "know the times" ferry publication social shifts woolworths Canberra mccrindle twentyseventeen australian faith urban living index vegemite domestic moderators guide click trend tuesday rich tea ipswich follow NT VET sector owning a home HSC residents australians staying home more REIV National Conference conference speaker JOMO event TED Australia street data visualisation The ABC of XYZ litter technology teachers clothing ACF financial future average aussie poker master baby names australia report population milestone emerging technologies small business hornsby baby boom define Australian Home spirituality report tuesday interactive forecasting purpose grandparents Myth trend conference presentation rent parents SMSF low density demography Social Trend proactive Wodonga business performance training culturally diverse Gen Y population map 10 years program dessert work-life language social media train Wellington mccrindle tea Charlotte cold renter of the future mccrindle in the media business index infographic national crime rates intern the australian dream supply and demand world South Australia acf15 panel shopping study presentations hobart educated growth anzac winter suburban living organisations education perth public speaking balance capital city faux-cilising 1968 professional presenters keynote speaker unemployment professional survey design eliane rising house prices hills shire cost long weekend social issues society resource TEDx forecast bondi priorities DESTEL SMART Births learn learning styles changing face of sydney Australian Census Assistant Store Manager renting children trends australian communities forum insight future proofing paying to work bus mythbusting rule keeper prince george demographic middle class increasing densification manly celebration trends of 2016 Hills Shire Council retirement work mates future proof Australian demographics cooking mythbusters socialites high density ashley fell entertainment social research meetings cultural diversity 23 million shbc sports Christmas presents skills community event presentation global generations leadership workshop christmas McCrindle Speakers story typical australian Generation Y 1994 Skilling australian community trends report Australians relevant Merry Christmas sunny days royal influence urban living analysis market research volunteering 2012 Christmas season financial planning budget charities Hornsby Shire Council culture global financial crisis demographic trends teleworking social lives educhat 2017 professional speaker Australian Dream workshop consumerism employers moreton bay REIV Conference engagement ACF2017 religion world youth day social commentary selfie Melbourne cars Crime Rates New South Wales SA financial fears high density apartments quote case study public holiday January 26th 24,000,000 plans NBRS infographic wall future-proof pharmacy baby names report authenticity innovation shopper's pick darwin survey the great screenage fears video 2016 community engagement couple professional services Geoff Brailey the hills shire Aussie relational population statistics monarchy commuters ACF17 Financial Planning Association online Australian schools NEETs mateship shifts social change generation Z System's Architect social researchers household casual wedding daily telegraph economy census results names debate brisbane daily commute pharmacies cancelling plans social impact suburb apartment geomapping focus groups 2014 christian ACT rain media activity the changing face of Tasmania hills vegetarian consumer townhouses travel easy rider volunteering data waverton cartodb resilience New Zeland going out national private wealth volunteers youth aged care puzzle families dare to dream TED talk Vocational education finance sector wide study Research Executive crows nest TAS chairty dreams media commentary Bathburst princess charlotte workforce NFP event millennials care support spend Andrew Duffin collaborative women staff brand gig economy millenials 2016 census results affordable city investing rental stress social trends land of the middle class choice workers urban faux-ciliser medicine Australian Trends VET English ideas young australians divorce lalor park Australia Day 2017 cloudy days megatrends hopes leadership community gig gender weather criminal post rationalism holiday huffington post affordability financial independence financial dreams focus group baby name predictions VIC 40 million office 1980 australian social research micro apartments wealth inequality Australia Day meals sydneycity equip Caregiver transport Work place social enquiry child care schools students belief social life news participants ageing population product Gen X tv tableau education future business schools village thrive holidays parenting mortgage wage contiki offenders winter blues FOMO career motivate wages housing growth government professional development Generation X emerging trends income year 7 internet facts Valentine’s Day pyrmont recap census data gen alpha coffee visualisation home owner #censusfail unaffordable sydneysiders communications networking student infographics futurist summer sydneysider stats house price data analyst tips sentiments baby name snapshot cash living cost of living church year 12 global Sydney keynote speaker australian communities trends report responsive engage Macquarie University wolloomooloo newspaper area future local community kate middleton divorce rate personal growth millionth Education Future Forum generations Kirsten Brewer sydney event SRE wealth distribution real 24 million water grave decision economic gen z Sydney Hills Business Chamber Word Up census 2016 car speakers pack IT Specialists faux-cilise staying in NBRS Architecture norwest life entrepreneurial baby name trends CPI future of shopping speakers Population Clock housing market households award office opening brand experience Northern Territory trends analyst future of work Western Australia Australian communities hello fresh social researcher leader energy ethnography society trends wellbeing house work urban taskforce youth unemployment easter bureau environment potts point goal challenge deloitte graphs narcissism students PSI social workplace research services nfp social analysis food salary impact Do It Yourself sydney metro media release suburbs Australian community trends future of education learner aged care earnings collaboration royal baby marrickville research pack Christchurch trends of 2017 teaching Northern Beaches Christian School

Archive