Australia's Capital Cities

Thursday, July 09, 2015

AUSTRALIA’S CAPITAL CITIES: GROWTH, CHANGE & A FUTURE FORECAST

CAPITAL CITIES

Over 66% of Australians live in the greater metropolitan area of Australia’s 8 capital cities with Sydney being the largest (around 4.9 million), followed by Melbourne (4.5 million). Darwin is Australia’s smallest capital city, with a current population of around 144,000. The nation’s capital, Canberra, has a population of 394,000, larger than Darwin and Hobart combined.

The title of fastest growing city is held by Perth which has recorded 3.05% per year for the past 5 years whilst Hobart has the lowest rate of growth of only 0.67% per year over the same period. Sydney and Melbourne recorded growth of 1.5% and 1.95% per year over respectively.

In terms of population increase, Melbourne comes up on top with an increase of 95,655 people in the last year while Hobart only had an increase of 1,247 people in the same period. In fact Melbourne is growing by more people every 5 days than Hobart adds in an entire year. Sydney recorded an increase of 84,230 people in the last year and based on this increase will be Australia’s first city to reach 5 million, a milestone it will achieve by the middle of 2016.

However, at a state level there have been significant changes over the last 3 years in the population growth rate across Australia. Western Australia, which was the fastest growing state has seen this annual growth rate more than halve from a peak of 3.68% in 2012 to just 1.58% currently. Over the same period of time, Queensland’s growth has also declined significantly from 2.0% to 1.37% now, while Victoria’s consistent population growth rate of 1.75% makes it the fastest growing of any Australian state or territory.

Sydney has a population approximately 400,000 larger than Melbourne’s but Melbourne is growing by over 10,000 more people than Sydney year on year. Assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows, Melbourne will take Sydney’s title of Australia’s largest city in 2053 with both cities expected to reach a population of 8 million in 2055.

Perth’s rate of growth will see it overtake Brisbane in 2029 when they both have a population of just over 3 million. They currently have a population of 2.1 million and 2.3 million respectively.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT URBAN AREAS

The Gold Coast – Tweed Heads area has the largest population outside of the capital cities (almost 630,000) and also registered the largest increase in number of residents in 2009 to 2014. The 2nd largest urban area is the Newcastle – Maitland area but the Sunshine Coast had the 2nd largest increase in population even though they are ranked 4th in terms of population size. The City of Dubbo, with a population of 36,622 is the smallest of Australia’s significant urban areas.

Launceston recorded the lowest smallest rate of population increase between 2009 and 2014, growing by only 0.35% per year but they are ranked 13th in overall population, out of 32 significant urban areas. The Traralgon – Morwell area was the only area to experience a population decline with a decrease in population of 28 between 2013 and 2014.

On the other end of the scale, Ellenbrook is the fastest growing urban area by far, recorded growth of 8.35% per year between 2009 and 2014 followed by Melton which recorded growth of 5.32% per year over the same period.

AUSTRALIA'S CAPITALS: POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Sydney

  • Reach 5m in 2016, 6m in 2029, 7m in 2042, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.23%

Melbourne

  • Reach 5m in 2021, 6m in 2032, 7m in 2043, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.44%

Brisbane

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2047
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.6%

Adelaide

  • Reach 1.5m in 2027
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.83%

Perth

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2042, 5m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 2.14%

Hobart

  • Reach 250,000 in 2034
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.47%

Darwin

  • Reach 200,000 in 2048
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.08%

Sydney vs Melbourne

  • Melbourne will overtake Sydney for the title of largest Australian city in 2053

Brisbane vs Perth

  • Perth will overtake Brisbane for the title of 3rd largest Australian city in 2029

*Data assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows.

Sources: ABS, McCrindle

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

aged care optus SRE poker master Channel 7 financial independence real James Ward average aussie in depth interviews entrepreneurs of today university degree stats youth fears culturally diverse the great screenage twentyseventeen ultimo breakfast technology etiquette challenge equip eliane population growth socialising Andrew Duffin friends VET australian communities trends report sunny days stay home apartments Work place 10 years ipswich employment focus groups Wodonga rule keeper suburbs mentor wage FOMO suburb 2016 Australia Day ageing facts child care dream goals SMART resilience millenials Australian Communities Trends results 2017 winter annual income list youth unemployment offenders baby names future of work social media define communication holidays coffee government life wealth distribution Christmas lunch logan baby boom office space mining boom Research Director meetings high school low density new york times career sydney metro national wealth sports NBRS spend 2016 census results tuesday millennials global The ABC of XYZ qualitative research crows nest entrepreneurial mateship hills shire food know the times in the media Love car australia trends of 2016 census results royal tips mccrindle research selfie work mates infographic wall cartodb waverton office opening criminal hobart mythbusting 40 million the hills hills rent financial dreams leadership networking unaffordable ABS learning transport authenticity 1980 Charlotte Netflix trades workshop World Water Day communications women greatness PSI wages year 12 geomapping System's Architect education future purpose workplace culture Northern beaches Event hornsby trends young australians baby name trends earnings organisations millionth poor workplace safe analysis dreaming Tasmania shopping centre cica keynote household professional development earn sector wide 2020 media commentary workforce home owner shbc IT Specialists sector wide study water kate middleton church Gen X demographer news cars rich wellbeing baby names report brand 2013 identity trend tuesday travelling research visualisation optus my business awards affordable learner innovative Macquarie University demographic trends award sydneysider Australian Families intern tea google pharmacy Australian Census learning styles medicine long weekend friendship Mark McCrindle interactive Australian Bureau of Statistics debt baby proactive grave decision commuters clothing Adelaide Res Vis social analysis community event men national crime rates presentation charity ideas community cultural diveristy local community 1994 living environmental scanning darwin tableau builders housing market public holiday entrepreneur couple Financial Planning Association pharmacies Kiwi faux-ciliser generational trends Channel Seven mccrindle in the media royal family digital business performance 2016 census generation townhouses village internship Valentine’s Day The Daily Edition bureau Australian schools "know the times" marriage monarchy plans balance wolloomooloo demography storytelling Australian demographics nfp demographic 24 million Deaths emerging generations sentiments Australian Dream acf15 royal influence training earning retirement motivate social Sydney NT 2012 public speaking sun Gen Y education product statistics pyrmont generation alpha Financial Planning Association of Australia engagement consumerism Wellington community engagement non profit Word Up wealth and income distribution supply and demand property market January 26th jobs of the future video slideshare overcast not-for-profit cancelling event crime commute school satisfaction study investor professional micro tv emerging technologies SMSF SA finance paying to work FPA outsourcing renter of the future professional speaker trends analyst educhat engage program generation Z Melbourne speakers Do It Yourself survey design JOMO area population map deloitte mccrindle tea showreel financial fears language ashley fell trend cancelling plans visualisation cancel plans Australia Day 2017 ACT Real Estate Institute of Victoria Skilling REIV Conference Financial Planning Week year 7 post rationalism megatrends belief wealth and income Christchurch high density living national private wealth 23 million mythbusters snapshot financial future bondi census fail society social researcher gender weather Real Estate impact gen alpha christian event follow educated panel faux-cilise HSC royal baby brisbane growing population Education Future Forum student population milestone research report collaboration rental stress jobs bus renting ashley mckenzie Assistant Store Manager aged care puzzle speakers pack change quote weekly earnings parenting Kirsten Brewer education future report potts point Generation Y presentations typical australian thrive Duchess of Cambridge Australia street faith TDE ageing population teacher happiness easter teach media activity narcissism demographics mother's day wedding conference presentation online rising house prices housing trends social lives socialites house price EFF Northern Territory sydney event Wagga Wagga future of education Bathburst case study 2015 ethnography high density aussie culture global financial crisis Aussie manly communities investment christianity father's day the changing face of ACF 2016 gen z home ownership marriages meals world youth day future Northern Beaches Christian School social commentator domestic city culture Australians forum parents cash victoria summer tertiary education brands the hills shire mortgage house entertainment Social Trend business index TAS lifestyle conference Births report residents NSW researcher mccrindle omnibus cooking university not for profit innovation income apartment winter blues media sunburnt country divorce rate consumer divorce leader keynote speaker click CBD hello fresh families census social trends cost of living capital city contiki visual skills global generations easy rider NEETs housing affordability future proofing young people google for education customer rise of local forecasting small business Australian communities education sector dare to dream data analyst perth #censusfail personal growth Sydney Hills Business Chamber recap the average aussie forecast New South Wales marketing moreton bay English average Australian research services names housing 1975 states sydneysiders social research Northern Beaches shifts data visualisation Scouts energy australian communities forum shopper's pick Christmas season goal New Zealand baby name middle class CPI high density apartments gold coast media release social issues careers school alpha cloudy days average sydneysider future-proof census data buildings ferry Western Australia social researchers priorities healthy future litter teleworking Territory Engineering Manager futurist cultural diversity conferences Canberra investing debate Aussies survey experience the australian dream micro apartments marrickville train wealth New Zeland 24,000,000 world thought leadership Australian Home newspaper Christmas presents DESTEL infographic resource Hornsby Shire Council social shifts February 16 anzac grandparents celebration travel schools students politics schools social commentary princess charlotte australian social research Queensland: QLD infographics personalities house price rise social life christmas trends of 2017 economy online shopping Vocational education rain Tuesday Trends conference speaker land of the middle class group participants property events Queensland baby name predictions urban communicate moderators guide seasons Hills Shire Council sydney speaker local communities faux-cilising work-life collaborative Sydney keynote speaker baby boomers Royals daily telegraph future proof sustainable teachers owning a home eliane miles financial fresh relational business salary Tuesday Trend public speaker VET sector brand experience staff office sydneycity prince george 1968 children urban living budget internships family research data urban living index property price mobile shopping growth increasing densification census 2016 Merry Christmas group session speaker population REIV National Conference affordability households sydney hills award winner mover and shaker going out Caregiver vegetarian capital cities home Population Clock organisational culture South Australia house prices ACF repayments environment woolworths social impact unemployment tattoos DIY Generation X McCrindle Speakers vegemite focus group volunteers GPO Myth local society trends housing growth australians staying home more students insights economic neutral bay optimistic menai market research new office employers professional services learn WA research pack social enquiry graphs hopes Geoff Brailey relevant blaxland ease of travel education research NBRS Architecture staying in urban taskforce internet cold curiosity norwest sector leadership workshop emerging trends publication future of shopping holiday Australian Trends toys daily commute lalor park Australian Population cost baby names australia report insight huffington post screenage generations 2014 religion Crime Rates responsive spirituality state school students professional presenters dessert changing face of sydney suburban living demographic transformations teaching story work Research Executive social change VIC research data

Archive