Supply and demand; Australia as an ageing nation

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

DEMAND: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

A CLEAR AGEING TRAJECTORY

Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 300,000 a year. 30 years ago, the over 65s made up just 11% of our population (one in nine persons). Today the over 65s make up 15% of our population (one in seven). Forecasts project that this cohort will make up 18% in 2027 (one in six). By 2047 one in five Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.

AGEING SOCIETY

Our median age is also increasing. Three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 31.3. Today it is 37.4 and in 2047 it is projected to be just under 40.

85+ POPULATION

The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at a faster rate than the over 65s. In 1987 there were 133,448 Australians aged over 85. Today there are four times as many, and in 2047 there will 14 times as many.

INCREASED LONGEVITY

Not only are there more older people in our nation, but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1987 was 76.3, whereas today it is 81 for a male and 85 for a female. In 2047, it is projected to 89.9.

HEALTH ADVANCEMENTS ARE INCREASING LONGEVITY

The primary enabler of this increased longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure and better public health measures. New and improved medical interventions will also contribute, as will the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of death (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF CENTENARIANS WILL KEEP THE QUEEN BUSY

In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written to Australians turning 100. This year, 2,925 Australians will turn 100 and in 10 years 5,401 will turn 100. In 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 25,938 in the year 2047.

SUPPLY: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

THE CHALLENGE OF SUPPLY

Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.

RATIO OF WORKERS TO RETIREES DECLINING

The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1975 for every person of retirement age there were 7.1 people in the working age population. By 2015 there were just 4.5 people of working age for every individual of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 2.7 people of working age for every individual at retirement age by 2055.

IMPENDING RETIREMENTS

Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 350,000 workers in the aged care sector (estimated in 2012), so this equates to an average of 11,667 retirements per year for the next 15 years. This averages to 972 farewell lunches per month!

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 129,945 workers in the next 10 years. This equates to recruiting 1,083 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 972 retiring staff per month.

That’s a total recruitment goal of 2,055 each month – adding nearly 25,000 individuals to Australia’s aged care workforce each year.

GET IN TOUCH

To find out more about McCrindle's expertise in the aged care industry, or how we can communicate these insights to your team, please get in touch.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

brand experience learner baby name trends social trends increasing densification typical australian rising house prices prince george qualitative research victoria breakfast ipswich workshop new office professional services divorce rate personalities men online tea retirement Assistant Store Manager intern market research research services Financial Planning Week moderators guide easy rider the average aussie royal family organisations entrepreneurial kate middleton Social Trend neutral bay entertainment future of education pharmacy youth cloudy days study demography 1994 snapshot define participants school satisfaction organisational culture research report apartments Gen Y finance schools ultimo apartment Canberra engagement home cancelling plans grave decision energy Hills Shire Council keynote speaker annual income the hills shire REIV National Conference public speaking Sydney 24 million New Zealand Christmas lunch area going out global TEDx grandparents sports survey design communicate #censusfail sydney metro mentor Adelaide generation Z collaboration speakers pack Research Executive office space mobile shbc google unemployment infographic perth Channel Seven social commentator fears presentation happiness income sydney hills baby boomers Sydney Hills Business Chamber Scouts Australian schools business property price rent future proofing paying to work emerging trends NT environmental scanning emerging technologies water keynote offenders 1968 consumer change darwin Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian communities resource internships education sector wage sector GPO population greatness Australian Population population map house prices house summer optus Generation Y twentyseventeen Queensland rule keeper employment cica Crime Rates royal household Financial Planning Association of Australia weather teacher demographic trends daily commute SMSF trades mover and shaker identity socialising year 12 demographics housing church DIY Andrew Duffin city CBD blaxland social researchers tv crows nest sydney event potts point Myth statistics data analyst cultural diveristy insights brands Christchurch program women hello fresh generational trends commute shopper's pick authenticity group session renter of the future research pack ferry crime Love Financial Planning Association emerging generations conference presentation home ownership media activity menai earn bus Geoff Brailey baby names report analysis WA financial VET Northern beaches Event SRE young people staff event wellbeing Research Director know the times demographer medicine education research government workplace culture Gen X graphs youth unemployment plans financial dreams royal baby dreaming newspaper focus groups growth events proactive investing networking thought leadership narcissism speaker 2015 South Australia 24,000,000 marrickville Netflix safe world youth day staying in census data affordability wedding rain unaffordable aged care society personal growth goals earning local communities brisbane poor teach social shifts professional development Australian Communities Trends Wellington Kirsten Brewer eliane healthy future hornsby national private wealth online shopping anzac The Daily Edition conference news property faux-cilise contiki clothing huffington post wolloomooloo 23 million monarchy System's Architect father's day ABS NEETs australian communities forum high school megatrends resilience spend trends of 2017 jobs of the future showreel World Water Day Real Estate Institute of Victoria acf15 rental stress salary financial independence woolworths research visualisation changing face of sydney generation alpha the australian dream travelling food census 2016 sunburnt country households education cooking mccrindle in the media public speaker aussie culture hopes James Ward Northern Territory social lives responsive sun TDE 1975 media release capital city results economy earnings sydneysiders CPI parents financial fears suburb wealth distribution Tasmania christian families research data norwest vegetarian Australian Trends debate innovative gender mateship australian social research social change Education Future Forum office opening world vegemite The ABC of XYZ family education future storytelling property market not for profit data visualisation middle class tuesday marriages FOMO politics mccrindle tea the changing face of communities spirituality Merry Christmas priorities SA screenage VIC non profit christmas domestic Tuesday Trends urban living index New Zeland sunny days purpose housing growth balance Australian Dream capital cities national wealth ashley fell faith village infographic wall urban future of shopping population milestone VET sector TED innovation baby names australia report Real Estate census Engineering Manager Northern Beaches leader future-proof school work-life australian communities trends report list Res Vis 2013 stats Charlotte January 26th ethnography Australia street 2020 technology teachers weekly earnings moreton bay renting language NBRS business performance teleworking business index low density car year 7 hobart cancelling event friends Skilling christianity generations overcast collaborative wealth and income distribution university degree office high density average sydneysider ageing population wages faux-cilising REIV Conference forum Work place relevant interactive hills shire real optimistic average Australian belief criminal dream Do It Yourself townhouses educhat omnibus ageing social issues gen z life Births mother's day house price rise winter long weekend Valentine’s Day focus group social repayments media growing population Caregiver McCrindle Speakers dessert micro apartments builders Kiwi baby name predictions the great screenage parenting national crime rates mccrindle charity census fail state stay home bureau future in the media Wodonga meals population growth train marriage poker master housing market 2016 census results curiosity Bathburst NBRS Architecture social impact employers ACF geomapping social enquiry presentations in depth interviews Channel 7 shifts thrive housing affordability states etiquette learning styles gold coast data global financial crisis rise of local publication conferences urban living 2014 equip slideshare trends of 2016 nfp eliane miles mining boom brand housing trends relational coffee faux-ciliser educated easter "know the times" Christmas presents motivate wealth and income suburbs community survey futurist tertiary education HSC student buildings visualisation litter Christmas season goal researcher product holiday cars leadership pharmacies high density apartments award winner TED talk work English cultural diversity Word Up customer Melbourne Australia Day mccrindle research public holiday rich daily telegraph careers religion university engage 10 years ease of travel follow 2017 trend high density living baby wealth New South Wales community event cancel plans divorce demographic transformations sydneycity Hornsby Shire Council celebration education future report ashley mckenzie small business DESTEL Aussie marketing trends analyst generation living cold entrepreneurs of today communication schools students post rationalism friendship dare to dream professional australians staying home more Australian demographics waverton budget lalor park visual millenials media commentary trend tuesday future of work names millionth IT Specialists local community ideas cartodb bondi Australia Day 2017 skills Wagga Wagga socialites experience Australian Home social media teaching average aussie manly report outsourcing community engagement shopping centre social researcher urban taskforce the hills sector wide study seasons workplace 2016 Northern Beaches Christian School aged care puzzle NSW Duchess of Cambridge 1980 society trends recap culturally diverse 2012 cash case study Aussies jobs meetings hills new york times pyrmont learn residents speakers sustainable economic students google for education internship internet sydneysider Tuesday Trend baby names communications lifestyle social research mythbusting professional presenters volunteers royal influence PSI workforce social analysis learning 2016 census holidays impact Population Clock winter blues alpha mythbusters couple travel land of the middle class digital TAS trends debt ACT shopping cost millennials culture challenge logan financial future research home owner Royals school students professional speaker SMART supply and demand sentiments Australian Families demographic Queensland: QLD EFF training FPA 40 million owning a home Western Australia transport suburban living Deaths career Macquarie University commuters australia conference speaker tips future proof infographics cost of living baby name social life children local story Generation X work mates child care young australians optus my business awards video tableau Territory insight gen alpha group click mortgage investor forecast fresh sydney speaker toys deloitte environment ACF 2016 panel Vocational education global generations Australians selfie investment February 16 Australian Census house price tattoos quote Mark McCrindle facts Sydney keynote speaker not-for-profit award census results JOMO princess charlotte entrepreneur micro forecasting baby boom leadership workshop social commentary consumerism sector wide affordable

Archive