Supply and demand; Australia as an ageing nation

Tuesday, March 21, 2017



Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 300,000 a year. 30 years ago, the over 65s made up just 11% of our population (one in nine persons). Today the over 65s make up 15% of our population (one in seven). Forecasts project that this cohort will make up 18% in 2027 (one in six). By 2047 one in five Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.


Our median age is also increasing. Three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 31.3. Today it is 37.4 and in 2047 it is projected to be just under 40.


The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at a faster rate than the over 65s. In 1987 there were 133,448 Australians aged over 85. Today there are four times as many, and in 2047 there will 14 times as many.


Not only are there more older people in our nation, but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1987 was 76.3, whereas today it is 81 for a male and 85 for a female. In 2047, it is projected to 89.9.


The primary enabler of this increased longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure and better public health measures. New and improved medical interventions will also contribute, as will the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of death (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.


In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written to Australians turning 100. This year, 2,925 Australians will turn 100 and in 10 years 5,401 will turn 100. In 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 25,938 in the year 2047.



Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.


The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1975 for every person of retirement age there were 7.1 people in the working age population. By 2015 there were just 4.5 people of working age for every individual of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 2.7 people of working age for every individual at retirement age by 2055.


Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 350,000 workers in the aged care sector (estimated in 2012), so this equates to an average of 11,667 retirements per year for the next 15 years. This averages to 972 farewell lunches per month!

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 129,945 workers in the next 10 years. This equates to recruiting 1,083 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 972 retiring staff per month.

That’s a total recruitment goal of 2,055 each month – adding nearly 25,000 individuals to Australia’s aged care workforce each year.


To find out more about McCrindle's expertise in the aged care industry, or how we can communicate these insights to your team, please get in touch.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare

Last 150 Articles


builders professional presenters sydneysiders Australian community trends stats global generation unemployment maiden criminal narcissism townhouses challenge society prince george grandparents Australian Home workshop the changing face of presentation Royals EFF city mccrindle tertiary education award Christchurch typical australian national private wealth suburban living father's day millionth facts media community event property price financial future retirement Channel 7 storytelling do people still change their surname after marriage? future generations housing unaffordable research services follow not for profit local business index hunger The Daily Edition financial future woolworths Births speakers pack mentor Love Engineering Manager identity TED talk Australian Bureau of Statistics Business analysis shbc dreams DESTEL apartments transport low density focus group royal family Tuesday Trends commuters Research Director ABS ACF17 millennials Canberra rule keeper long weekend language digital economy 2012 eliane miles mccrindle research daily telegraph trades financial dreams public speaker non profit Christmas in Australia conference speaker screenage middle class in depth interviews Christmas day weather responsive research visualisation award winner social media training Christmas data communities royal influence rent renter of the future Jura Australia skills sydneycity trends of 2016 social enquiry goals communications TDE china house media commentary Hills Shire Council contiki home program January 26th equip dessert school students teacher Black Friday in Australia environmental scanning social issues seasons poker master education research technology Netflix faux-ciliser professional SMSF business focus groups norwest work mates holiday participants Australian demographics mortgage casual commuting schools students emerging technologies wages education future census data rise of local sydneysider christmas 2017 Jura Coffee conference presentation urban development affordability case study hills trend tuesday spend year 7 Australian Trends travelling Charlotte Geoff Brailey social lives CBD Real Estate ageing safe 2017 click impact generation The ABC of XYZ Aussies tv HR social impact cars alpha online shopping society trends ethnography new york times event Crime Rates screenagers curiosity New Zeland financial independence Gen Z Expert volunteering data work from home Australians innovation baby names australia report national crime rates belief wealth and income distribution teleworking children USA budget media activity mother's day Foodbank Australia SRE digital relational analysis data maiden names annual income car sunburnt country collaborative public transport local community friendship cancel plans Tuesday Trend brisbane faith ferry aussie culture Mount Annan-Currant Hill demographer population who is generation z gold coast moderators guide child hunger Australia street research data global generaion dreaming Australian Population 2016 census 1980 NBRS Architecture research on coffee parents overcast princess charlotte australia hobart states community engagement infographic seasons greetings daily commute generations Black Friday Sales Hunter Valley cica weather market research indonesia REIV Conference names gig economy REIV National Conference etiquette World Water Day growing population Elderslie-Harrington park ashley fell Res Vis world youth day professional speaker australian real estate residents property growth the future volunteer sector wide media release NSW Merry Christmas What is food insecurity? urban charities earn Bathburst study generation Z baby name predictions australian ashley mckenzie internship survey design nativity scene happy holidays life cultural diveristy leader Generation X Vocational education house price church 10 years hopes pharmacy moreton bay Christmas Stats housing affordability gen alpha wage housing growth sydney event consumer wealth high density define data visualisation McCrindle Keynote Speakers authenticity shopping marriage divorce rate environment village ACF JOMO DIY high density living volunteering US demographic Maxim Accounting wealth distribution crows nest nfp VET events video gen z visual Mark McCrindle innovative live the dream baby care support future-proof family social jobs of the future Lower Hunter pyrmont high density apartments university younger generations SMART sector 1968 2020 1995 Australian Dream work hills shire generation alpha staff royal baby data analysis ACT Report darwin professional development youth 23 million Christmas day social change women donation pharmacies demographic transformations anzac Real Estate Institute of Victoria students hornsby research report charity optus mccrindle in the media ACT survey schools fresh holidays social shifts tips cancelling plans trend infographics balance Australian Communities Trends optus my business awards university degree future of education food graphs census trends social research house prices cash google rental stress food insecurity future proof infographic wall real 40 million "know the times" area generational trends toys NT changing face of sydney christmas population milestone mateship careers greatness energy population growth 1975 rumbling tummies brand report mythbusters average sydneysider snapshot rich Christmas presents internet volunteers vegetarian census 2016 customer victoria meals showreel deloitte interactive employmer IT Specialists workplace group session wedding sydney metro Social Trend Black Friday consumerism australian communities forum huffington post Millennial TED Kiwi year 12 baby boomers career government stay home ageing population sun student baby names social researcher 2013 going out Performance Sentiment Index faux-cilising Education Future Forum shopping centre omnibus social trends bureau wealth inequality SA data analyst personalities demographic analysis news Aussie weekly earnings story office opening not-for-profit education sector in the media menai change 24,000,000 shifts conference healthy future Mark McCrindle in the media money the hills property development affordable demographic trends marriages entertainment trends of 2017 choice workers the average aussie the hills shire global financial crisis households sydney speaker employment increasing densification coffee 2016 census results travel Myth workforce Macquarie University product geomapping local communities learning styles FOMO learner Sydney Hills Business Chamber social analysis #censusfail youth unemployment baby name finance conferences eliane engage coffee lovers Do It Yourself christian community Northern Beaches australian social research wellbeing home owner sydney hills Sydney faith and belief future of work resilience easter researcher paying to work millenials gig networking forum 24 million entrepreneurs of today Retail wolloomooloo Cobbitty-Leppington economy small business gender entrepreneurial teaching Sydney Lifestyle Study Gen X Population Clock engagement Willowdale spirituality royal personal growth property market earnings Australia Day learn mover and shaker easy rider Word Up dare to dream aged care culturally diverse presentations organisations Assistant Store Manager christmas trees educhat not for profit research marketing professional services india relevant forecast friends bondi debate urban living index food bank know the times the great screenage global investment mccrinlde Hornsby Shire Council christianity priorities optimistic Melbourne McCridle salary Tasmania Andrew Duffin religion chairty thought leadership Northern Territory tableau ACF2017 rain australian community trends report medicine sports neutral bay supply and demand workplace culture work-life rising house prices quote repayments wealth and income social commentator tuesday insights giving aged care puzzle monarchy Australian schools Lower Hunter Region Financial Planning Week household Work place Caregiver tea public holiday earning speaker keynote ideas educated learning outsourcing the lucky country suburb sentiments investing NBRS organisational culture employmee sector wide study parenting state list socialites buildings Australia Day 2017 men domestic GPO blaxland recap baby boom sophie renton leadership workshop sustainable CPI ACF 2016 South Australia McCrindle Speakers school online Duchess of Cambridge apartment micro apartments Queensland: QLD speajer logan ultimo waverton capital city Australian Families dream Wodonga offenders manly future of shopping cold renting suburbs donate shopper's pick Northern Beaches Christian School Gen Y meetings kate middleton debt winter blues HSC the australian dream education demographics sunny days jobs 2016 income collaboration Western Australia visualisation cloudy days social commentary urban taskforce divorce Christmas research statistics newspaper panel McCrindle Speaker baby names report surnames grave decision trends analyst communication global retail house price rise VET sector proactive leadersip ease of travel staying in land of the middle class cooking social life home ownership cost of living forecasting System's Architect VIC living social researchers 2015 Wagga Wagga Queensland world English teachers demography cost housing market lifestyle housing trends goal fears purpose Skilling acf15 clothing office commute motivate financial fears socialising vegemite February 16 2009 sydney market census results WA cartodb group litter Adelaide twentyseventeen entrepreneur thrive cancelling event New South Wales TEDx brands national wealth selfie capital cities post rationalism teach child care young australians population map owning a home office space brand experience James Ward TAS mccrindle tea young people internships Northern beaches Event Australian Census Territory growth of sydney high school groceries politics families australians staying home more business performance global generations water Financial Planning Association australian communities trends report faux-cilise NEETs PSI summer hello fresh publication census fail cultural diversity Sydney keynote speaker poor Generation Y urban living Understanding and Engaging with Generation Z keynote speaker research pack 2014 breakfast train plans perth New Zealand tattoos 1994 google for education Financial Planning Association of Australia public speaking megatrends crime emerging trends insight school satisfaction Sydney’s south west surname marrickville speakers social analyst baby name trends financial planning Channel Seven celebration Scouts qualitative research sydney property market results ipswich mythbusting future proofing average aussie economic couple slideshare experience emerging generations TEDx Speaker research bus winter Valentine’s Day potts point average Australian NFP event Christmas season Christmas lunch Sydney population intern Research Executive mining boom happiness leadership mobile Australian communities investor resource communicate Deaths employers culture education future report Wellington lalor park new office micro FPA Kirsten Brewer futurist