Latest Census Results: The 'Typical Aussie'

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

As demographers and social researchers there are a few calendar events that cause for celebration. Among them include population milestones, special data set releases and, of course, the Census.

The preliminary results from the 2016 Census, released this morning, show a picture of a changing Australia. 

We now have a clearer picture of the ‘typical’ Australian

The typical Australian is a 38 year-old Gen X woman, born in 1979, who can expect to live past the age of 85. She is married with two children and lives in one of Australia’s capital city (like 3 in 5 Australians), which is worth $825,980 and which she owns with a mortgage. She has $427,847 equity in their home, which is the bulk of her wealth. She works full-time and gets to work by car, along with 69% of all commuters.

We also have a picture of a changing Australia

Evidence of an ageing Australia

The median age of Australians has increased from 37 to 38 (from the 2011 to the 2016 Census). Queensland has shown a strong leap in ageing (from 36 to 38), as has the Northern Territory (from a median age of 31 in 2011 to 34 in 2016). The median age is varied across Australia, with the youngest median age found in the NT (34) while the oldest median age is found in Tasmania (42).

Cultural Diversity – Growth in non-Anglo country of birth

  • Three states (NSW, VIC, and WA) now feature their ‘typical’ resident as a person who has at least one parent born overseas.
  • In NSW: China is now the top country of birth for residents born overseas, surpassing England since the 2011 Census.
  • In VIC: The top country for residents born overseas is India, which has surpassed England since the 2011 Census. A decade ago (2006) the top countries of birth for residents born overseas didn’t include India (They were England, Italy, New Zealand and Vietnam).

Housing affordability and home ownership

The typical person across all of the states and territories now no longer owns a home outright, but with a mortgage. Only NSW and TAS feature the typical person who owns a home outright, and in the NT, the typical person is renting their home.

Was #censusfail real?

No – despite some hiccups on 9 August 2016, the numbers show that the data is robust and up to the best-practice quality of previous census'.

  • 96% of Australians completed the Census (just slightly lower than in 2011, and higher than the required 93% for census quality data).
  • Just 11,000 refused to fill out the Census (lower than 13,000 who refused in 2011).
  • 58% completed the Census online (against an expected 65%) – yet this is twice the number from 2011

What's next?

Today's snapshot is just the start of the Census data release. On June 27, the official Census datasets will be released, with further data coming out in July, October and the final data to be released in early 2018.

The good news is that after discussions to relegate the Census to every ten years, the once-every-five-year Census is here to stay..
So it will all be on again on Tuesday 10 August 2021!


For any media enquiries please contact Kimberley Linco at kim@mccrindle.com.au, or call our offices on +61 2 8824 3422.



Australian Census 2016; What you need to know

Monday, August 08, 2016

As demographers and social researchers there are a few calendar events that cause for celebration. Among them include population milestones, special data set releases and, of course, the Census. Rolling around only every 5 years, the Census provides us all with vital information about our nation’s population growth, infrastructure and future-planning needs.

In 2016 the Census will be held tomorrow, Tuesday 9th August. It has been conducted every 5 years since 1911, and is the biggest democratic activity in Australia. While July’s election counted 14 million votes, the 2016 Census will include every household, age group, resident and visitor – all 24 million of us.

So here’s everything you need to know about the upcoming 2016 Census.

2 IN 3 AUSSIES WILL COMPLETE THE CENSUS ONLINE

This will be the most unique Census Australia has ever seen. In keeping with these technological times, 2 in 3 people will complete their form online, up from just 1 in 3 in 2011 and 1 in 10 back in 2006 (the first time there was an electronic option).

SHOWCASING OUR POPULATION MILESTONES

Firstly, the Census will show that our national population is growing, having hit a new record in February of this year and surpassing a population of 24 million people. Additionally, it will also show that Australia’s largest city – Sydney, has broken through the 5 million milestone.

Not only will the Census show that our population is growing, but also that we are ageing. Our population profile will no longer be a “population pyramid”, because for the first time there will be more Australians aged over 55 than under 20.

So the Census will show that our population is growing, ageing and as a result, it will show that we are moving. For the first time this Census will reveal that one in four Australian households live in townhouses or apartments rather than detached houses – the highest figure ever, up from just one in ten in 1966.

IMPORTANT QUESTION CHANGES TO THIS YEAR’S CENSUS

This year there will be a change to the religion question with the option of “No religion” now appearing at the top of that question rather than at the bottom, so it might attract some more numbers.

Additionally the question asked of women: “How many babies has she ever given birth to” states “live births only”, but will now include stillbirths and give acknowledgement of that loss And the question: “Is the person male or female” - will allow an alternative blank box for those who identify with neither gender.

PARTICPATION IN THE CENSUS IS COMPULSORY

Like participating in the election, it is compulsory to complete the Census. But for everyone in the country, not just citizens or residents. The Census and Statistics Act takes sitting the Census very seriously, with fines for non-completion after receiving an order to complete incurring a fine of $180 per day, and false answers can attract a fine of $1800.

But the good news is that the Act takes privacy very seriously as well and answers cannot be divulged by the ABS to anyone – even government agencies. Confidentiality is assured.

CENSUS RESULTS NOT RELEASED UNTIL 2017

If we thought we had to wait a while for the election results, be prepared for a longer wait for the Census findings. It will be analysed at record speed, but that still means a wait of 8 months, April 2017, with the full results not coming out until 2018!

Making Sense of the Census

Friday, August 05, 2016


It comes around once every five years and next Tuesday night, the census will count 10 million dwellings, making it the biggest in history. While the information helps to piece together where we live and what we do, changes to this year’s survey have sparked concerns over privacy. But that isn’t the only change. Faith is now in the spotlight with experts predicting Australia could be losing it’s religion.

How is this year’s census different?

The big change is the number of people expected to fill out the census form online or on a device. Such as this era five years ago, it was available as an e-census but less than one third filled it in that way. This year it is expected that more than two thirds will go for the online version.

How have the questions changed?

The religion question has changed, it used to list all the different religions and denominations and at the very bottom it said ‘no religion’. ‘No religion’ is now going to be the first option because a lot of people are going to select that. Nonetheless, as last time (where 61% chose Christianity in one form or another) it will probably be in the majority, but may fall a little bit.

For the first time the ABS is keeping some personal data, what about privacy?

People do worry about privacy and those names and details being kept for four years, but it’s for further ongoing analysis of where people live or how they move, age or people born in a certain year and further analysis of the data. The ABS or the Census have a pretty good track record of data security and I’ve even looked up the Census Act and there are serious penalties for people who in any way reveal data, so I think we can relax that it will be kept secure.

Are There are going to be new jobs included that weren’t there before?

If we even think of the five years since the last census, jobs like App Developer, Cyber Security Professional or Drone Pilot are new jobs that have emerged. I’m sure we will find a lot more jobs rather than just teacher and nurse in the Census under your occupation this year.

Why the August count will mean more than the July count

Monday, June 27, 2016

It’s not the July count but the August one that will be most revealing for Australia. It’s the Census not the Election that will tell us most about ourselves. The election will reveal a lot about our political persuasions and policy preferences however it is the census that will offer far more clarity and detail about our nation. And in a political era where policy and budgetary settings extend beyond the election cycle, the data and forecasts delivered twice a decade in the census are becoming increasingly essential.

If the election is a national compass that will set something of the policy direction for Australia over the next 3 years, the census is a map that shows us who we are as a society in a big picture sense, as well as the contours that highlight our varied local communities and their detailed needs. The political custodians of the national compass will need a good understanding of the lay of the land, the changing terrain and the context in which national leadership operates if they are to guide us effectively.

The map this year will show a more complex Australia, more delineations than in the past culturally, economically and socially. The land of wide open spaces is becoming more urbanised, densified and diverse. The land of the middle class is showing more fractures and there are some fault lines emerging across this big land of opportunity. However, despite the differing terrains across this nation of communities, the census will show a sense of unity amongst the diversity- a contiguous landscape of varied elements.

The changes the census will show can be summed up in five words:

Bigger

Not only will the numbers show that we exceed 24 million, but that we’ve more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1966 Census when we hadn’t even hit the 12 million mark. Sydney will also be shown to have just hit the 5 million milestone- the first Australian city to do so and also more than twice the population of 50 years ago of just 2.4 million.

Older

Our population profile will no longer be a “population pyramid” as for the first time there will be more Australians aged over 55’s than under 20. The 1966 Census showed less than 1 million Australians aged 65 or over while this one will show more than 3.5 million. Those in the “aged” category of 85 plus have gone from less than 55,000 then to almost half a million now.

Urban

for the first time this Census will show one in four Australian households live in townhouses or apartments rather than detached houses- the highest figure ever, up from just one in ten in 1966. The six state capitals plus Canberra have grown from just over half the population (6.7 million people) to more than two-thirds (16 million) in half a century.

Diverse

In 5 decades the proportion of Australians born overseas has increased from 17% to more than 30%. Back then, 90% of migrants were born in Europe with those born in Asia comprising less than 1% of the population while today China, India and Vietnam are all in the Top 5 countries of birth.

Mobile

Australians travel more than ever and getting to work by private vehicle is still the main transport mode, used by 2 in 3 workers. More than half of all households have at least 2 cars compared to less than 1 in 10 households in 1966. Back then, 40% of households had no car compared to just 8.6% today.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics do a superb job in providing such a detailed social map, updated every 5 years, regarded internationally as world-leading and provided in full, free to all to access for their own journey. Like any good map it shows all the peaks and valleys without agenda or ideology. No gloss needed- the data provides the picture and it is up to those who access it to chart a way forward any point out the pitfalls. As we each plot our own points on August 9 we are in the process charting a national map that will provide navigation into the next decade- a decade that will likely be the most transformative in Australia’s history.

Happy Valentine’s Day from McCrindle

Friday, February 12, 2016

While many think the tradition of marriage in Australia is declining, it is interesting to note that the number of marriages in Australia has been rising for more than a decade, now exceeding around 120,000. With Valentine’s Day just around the corner, we decided to further investigate some other facts about love and marriage in Australia.

Median age of marriage on the rise

The median age at marriage for males is 29.9 years, while for females it is 28.3 years, an increase of 0.1 years since 2013. Median age at marriage has remained stable for both males and females in recent years.

For both males and females in 2014, the highest age–specific marriage rates were for people between 25–29 years of age, with 41.4 marriages per 1,000 males and 48.9 marriages per 1,000 females.

Do half of all marriages in Australia end in divorce?

As of 2014, the number of marriages in Australia (121,197) was 9% more than the number of marriages 10 years ago. This accounted for a rate of 5.2 marriages per 1000 individuals however, over the same decade, the number of divorces in 2014 (46,498) declined by 4% since 1994, with only 2.0 divorces per 1000 individuals.

Therefore, the current divorce rate is just 38.4% of the current marriage rate and the divorce rate is falling faster than the marriage rate. Additionally, the length of those marriages that end is increasing, with the median duration to divorce being extended to 12 years compared to just 10.9-years in 1994.

Consequently, based on this analysis, it is not the case that half of all marriages end in divorce, but based on comparing national marriage and divorce rates, it can be estimated that around 1 in 3 marriages will end in divorce.

Fun facts about Valentine’s Day

  • Facebook says last year more than 75,000 Australians updated their relationship in the days that followed Valentine’s Day as singles connected up and couples committed to each other for life.
  • About 1 billion Valentine’s Day cards are exchanged each year. This makes it the second largest seasonal card sending time of the year (after Christmas).
  • 73 percent of people who buy flowers for Valentine's Day are men, while only 27 percent are women.
  • Valentine’s Day is the most popular non/holiday non-weekend day of the year on which Australians marry (exceeding 800 weddings) (ABS Cat 3310.0)
  • Valentine's Day is a lead up to what in Australia has become the most popular month in which to get married, March, although Spring (September, October and November) is still the most popular season (ABS Cat 3310.0)

Happy Valentine’s Day from McCrindle!


 

A new population milestone

Friday, February 05, 2016

A new population milestone

Australia is fast closing in on the next population milestone of 24 million. In the early minutes of Tuesday 16 February 2016, at 12:51am, Australia will officially hit a population of 24,000,000. Because not everyone will be glued to the ABS Population clock (link) like us, we thought we’d give you an advanced peak at what it will show (we’re futurists after all!).

Doubling Australia’s population- in pace with the world

In 1968, Australia’s population reached 12 million and so it has taken 48 years to double. Interestingly, in 1970, the global population was exactly half what it currently is at 7.3 billion and so the world has taken only slightly less time, 46 years, to double.

More than one third of Australians have seen both Australia, and the world double in population size in their lifetime!

A new million- in record time

Australia reached 23 million on 23 April 2013 which means it has added its 24th million in 2 years, 9 months and 2 days. This is the first time that a million people has been added to Australia’s population in less than 3 years. From 1954 when the population hit 9 million, until 2003 when the population hit 20 million, each addition million was added in a time span of around 4 and a half years. From 20 to 23 million, the time span had decreased to add each million every 3 and a half years (keeping in mind the readjustment in the timing of Australia reaching 22 million which was altered due to population adjustments based on the results of the 2011 Census).

And 17 years ahead of schedule

When Australia’s population reached 19 million on 18 August 1999, the factors of population increase were such that the forecast was for the national population to reach 24 million in 2033. However rather than each new million being added every 7 to 9 years as was forecast based on the trends at the time, Australia is adding an extra million every 3 years (increasing from 21 million to 24 million in 8 years and 8 months).

Baby boom, longevity boom and migration growth

Not only has the fertility rate over the last decade been much higher than predicted (and the consequential record baby boom averaging 300,000 births per year), but the increase in life expectancy was also beyond these predictions. And while net migration numbers have been slowing over the last couple of years, growth from migration was, and still is above the forecasts of the late 20th Century.

40 million by 2050

As recently as 2009 the forecast was for the population to reach 36 million by 2050. However, even based on the more modest population growth rate of 1.5% (well below the highs of 1.9% achieved in recent years), Australia’s population will reach 40 million by mid-century, with the possibility of it being beyond 43 million (based on 1.7% annual growth).

24 million of 7.3 billion

While Australia’s population growth is significant in national terms, our new milestone of 24 million is small compared to the US population of 323 million. And in a global context, Australia’s share of the world’s population is just 0.32% - less than one-third of 1%!

Happy 24 millionth Australia!

Sydney: One City, 300 Cultures

Friday, January 15, 2016

Sydney, a city which will soon reach 5 million people, is Australia’s most culturally diverse capital with over 2 in 5 Sydneysiders born overseas. Over half of all Sydney’s population have both parents being born overseas and over 40% speak a language other than English.

According the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, Sydney is comprised of people from over 220 countries and significant sub-regions, with over 240 different languages spoken and residents identifying with almost 300 different ancestries.

So which areas of Sydney are the most diverse, and what suburbs have the strongest connections to various cultures?

VISUALISING DATA WITH TABLEAU

Explore Sydney in all its cultural diversity below, where you are able to select any country, language and ancestry and see where people with those characteristics choose to call home within Sydney, or simply click on your area on our McCrindle Tableau map to reveal your area’s profile!

 

The Changing Face of Melbourne

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Melbourne is booming with its population set to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city in the next few decades. It’s Australia’s multicultural, hospitality and sporting heart and the fastest growing city in Australia.

By 2056, it could reach 9,000,000 residents and become the nation’s biggest city. While 1 in 4 Australians live in Victoria, three quarters of them live in Melbourne. The many suburbs and tribes that make up Victoria’s capitol are evolving in ways our grandparents could never have predicted. 

More than half of all new housing approvals are in the medium or high density housing so the future actually will be for the vertical communities rather than the horizontal sprawl in the past. Compared to the rest of Australia, Melbourne has a young population with an average age of 36 years compared to the Australian average of 37. 

Residents in East Melbourne have the city’s highest income of $1,989, while 75% of people in Parkville have university degrees. 64% of Sandhurst residents are married, while Carlton only have 16% married couples. The motorcar is king in the west, with residents in Plumpton owning 2.6 cars per household. Culturally diverse, vibrant & picture perfect, Melbourne has a very bright future. 

Watch Mark McCrindle in the three part series on Channel 7 below: 

Part One:

Part Two:

Part Three:

Sydney: Australia's most religious city

Thursday, October 08, 2015

There has much discussion of the decline of religion in Australia as measured by the last two Census’ (2006 and 2011) with the total stating “no religion” increasing from 18.7 to 22.3 over this five year period. Additionally the decline in the total identifying with a Christian denomination decreased from 64% to 61%.

However nationally the percentage identifying as Pentecostal, Salvation Army, Seventh-Day Adventist, and “other protestant” saw no decline and those in the Christian (not further defined) category saw an increase. Sydney is Australia’s most religious capital city with the lowest proportion of residents stating “no religion” (17.6%), while Hobart (29.4%) and Canberra (28.9%) have the highest proportion of populations not identifying with any religion.

The two dominant Christian identities nationally are Catholic (25.3%) and Anglican (17.1%). However Hobart is the one capital where Anglican (26.2%) outranks Catholic (20.3%) while Melbourne has the biggest differential between the two with Catholic (27.2%) more than twice the adherents as Anglican (10.8%). However it is Sydney that is the most Catholic of the capitals with 28.3%, and well ahead of Anglican at 16.1%. The areas of Sydney that have the highest identification with Christianity are in the South West with Menai, Mulgoa, Narellan, Warragamba and Horsley Park all areas rating above 80% Christianity. Sydney is also the only capital where a religion other than Christianity ranks in the top 3 (Islam, at 4.7%) with Auburn (42%) and Lakemba (49%) having the highest proportion of residents identifying with Islam.

Australia’s largest city, Sydney, is a religiously diverse one, and there is a strong link between location and religion as seen by these maps:

  • Catholic
  • Anglican
  • Judaism
  • Islam

For an in-depth visual look of Sydney by religious identification simply click on the interactive map above, and select the religions you would like to analyse by selecting the Visible layers box and options. You can also zoom in to look at specific areas of Sydney, or hover over a suburb to read the data.

About McCrindle Research Services

Utilising the right tools and methods and analysing the data is just half of the research process. Because the goal is implementation, the findings need the skills of visualisation and communication. As researchers we understand the methods, but we’re also designers and communicators so we know how to present the findings in ways that will best engage.

Geomapping is a new tool we have and we will be releasing more information and blog pieces on this exciting new output.

Let us know via social media if you have any topics you would like to be geomapped!

Connect with us on:

Australia and the First Australians

Monday, September 28, 2015

Currently there are more than 720,000 indigenous Australians – around 3% of the total population. The indigenous population is increasing at 2.3% per annum- significantly faster than national population growth of around 1.4%. By 2026 the number of indigenous Australians will be almost 940,000 and in 2030 the number will exceed 1,000,000.

The proportion of the population that is indigenous varies significantly from less than 1% in some areas of the larger cities, to more than 70% in the Northern Territory- in Arnhem Land.

The largest proportion of Australia’s indigenous population lives in NSW (31%) followed by Queensland (28%) and then Western Australia (13%). While the Northern Territory has a higher proportion of indigenous people than any other state or territory, it is home to just 10% of the total indigenous population.

Based on the faster growth trends of the Queensland indigenous population (2.5%) compared to that of NSW (2.1%), by 2037, the state with the largest indigenous population will be Queensland (356,000). While all states and territories are experiencing natural increase of indigenous Australians through births, NSW is experiencing an annual net loss of more than 500 indigenous persons per year to other states while Queensland is experiencing an interstate net gain of around 300. Additionally the remote and very remote areas of Australia are losing almost 900 indigenous Australians each year as they move to the larger regional areas (600 person gain) and major cities (300 person gain).

For an in-depth visual look at Australia’s indigenous population simply click on this interactive map, zoom in to look at specific regions across Australia, or hover over an area to read the data.

About McCrindle Research Services

Utilising the right tools and methods and analysing the data is just half of the research process. Because the goal is implementation, the findings need the skills of visualisation and communication. As researchers we understand the methods, but we’re also designers and communicators so we know how to present the findings in ways that will best engage.

Geomapping is a new tool we have and we will be releasing more information and blog pieces on this exciting new output.

Let us know via social media if you have any topics you would like to be geomapped!

Connect with us on:

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