The Fading Australian Dream

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Housing affordability is currently a key issue of discussion in Australia and while there are a number of factors at play, the main price driver is that demand for houses is exceeding supply. Population growth, a trend to smaller households (and so more homes needed relative to the population), and demand for homes not only from first home buyers but also from downsizers, overseas buyers, local investors, and self-managed super funds and trusts are all fuelling price rises.

While Australia’s current annual population growth of 1.4% may seem modest, this adds almost 340,000 to our population each year- which is one new Darwin every 20 weeks or a new Tasmania every 18 months.

Where population growth is strongest, house price rises are the highest

Sydney is growing much faster than this having averaged 1.8% per annum for the last five years. It will add almost two million to its population by 2037 – which is the equivalent of adding a new Perth into Sydney. Melbourne is currently Australia’s fastest growing city and based on the current growth trends, it will overtake Sydney to become the nation’s largest city around the middle of this century. Unsurprisingly where population growth is strongest, house price rises are the highest.

Earnings growth has not kept up with house price growth

In just twenty years, the average Sydney house price has increased more than five-fold from $233,250 in 1997 to $1,190,390 today while in Melbourne prices over the same period have increased by more than six times from $142,000 to $943,100 today. While it is true that wages have increased over this time, earnings growth has not kept up with house price growth. In 20 years, average annual full-time earnings have not quite doubled from $42,010 in 1997 to $82,784 today.

The impact of growing demand on house prices is most evident when comparing prices to average earnings. Twenty years ago, the average Sydney house was 5.6 times average annual earnings while in Melbourne it was an affordable 3.4 times annual earnings. Today Sydney homes are more than 14 times average earnings, and in Melbourne more than 11 times annual earnings. While the maxim that house prices double every 10 years is not always the case and growth fluctuates, since 1997 Sydney prices have in effect doubled every 8 years while Melbourne has managed this every 6 years.

If the growth metrics over the last two decades play out over the next two, the average home in both Sydney and Melbourne in 2037 will exceed $6 million. Clearly, the Australian dream of home ownership for the next generation is fading. Young people today need almost three times the purchasing power that their parents needed to buy the average place, so even double incomes will not quite do it. Additionally, today’s new households are starting their earnings years later than their parents, having spent longer in tertiary studies, and they begin their economic life not with zero savings like their parents, but well into the negative- with interest accumulating study debts to pay off. Even if today’s emerging generations start saving harder and earlier and live with their parents longer, home ownership is still not a given.

Policy settings around migration and baby bonuses have grown the population and policies around property tax incentives, self-managed superannuation and investment provisions have fuelled property demand therefore policy support will be required to bring the great Australian dream a little bit closer to reality.

Sources: Population at 2017 (ABS). 1997 prices: Macquarie University (Abelson). 2017 house prices: Core Logic. Analysis: McCrindle

Housing Affordability in NSW [infographic]

Monday, January 30, 2017

We’ve all heard about the difficulty of buying into the housing market in recent times and the subsequent decreases in home ownership rates (in NSW, from 68% in 2004 to 63% in 2014). With less people able to afford a home in the current market, there have been increases in the numbers of people looking to rent in New South Wales, and particularly Sydney.

We were delighted to be commissioned by Churches Housing and Shelter NSW to uncover the story of rental unaffordability in New South Wales. Through this research, we discovered that finding an available, affordable rental property is becoming increasingly difficult, particularly for those in the bottom 20% of income earners.

The decrease in the availability of rental properties over the last decade or so, has been influenced by a number of factors. Rental prices have increased due to the increased numbers of people looking to rent, and in past decades, rental prices have grown faster than income.

The infographic particularly highlights the difficulties for the bottom 40% of income earners in looking for appropriate rental properties. The term ‘rental stress’ is used to describe those in the bottom 40% who are spending over 30% of their income in housing costs. In 2013-14 NSW had the highest proportion of low income households experiencing rental stress, at 76% (compared to 68% nationally). For these households, rental stress can impact on other areas of life, including health care, schooling, diet and in the worst case can sometimes lead to homelessness. 

A Snapshot of the Changes Transforming Real Estate

Tuesday, September 06, 2016

Change. It’s happening all around us, and it’s easy to be intimidated by the scope and scale of it, but if we can observe the trends and the shifts, then we don’t have to become victims of change but rather we can proactively respond. That’s what’s key. Having the confidence to move forward strategically and proactively, to embrace the trends rather than hide from them.

Earlier this year Mark McCrindle presented Understanding the Times, Shaping the Trends: A Snapshot of the Changes Transforming Real Estate at the Real Estate Institute of Victoria National 2016 Conference. Here are some of his thoughts on trends shaping the Real Estate Industry.

How are generational differences impacting the REAL Estate industry?

Generationally, it is more important than ever to understand the six generations that we have in Australia. While the younger generations might not be active clients in terms of real estate vendors, they do influence parental purchasing and decisions a lot.

We can sometimes pre-qualify people based on our perception of where they’re at in their life stage, but actually there are a lot of people in their late 70’s who are still active in property, perhaps downsizing to buy their next place. Then you’ve got someone in their early 20’s who’s maybe not buying their own place, but perhaps looking at an expensive home because they will be living in that home with their parents. We have to understand the diversity of the generations and all of them may well be active influencers in the buying decision.

Do you have any recommendations on how the Real Estate industry can engage their community?

Sometimes the best connections are actual connections, not just personal ones. The events, the openings, the events where we invite the community along and talk about the area and what’s happening. That brand experience, where people can come to meet and greet with free pizza or cocktails, that sort of thing is what works well, people are looking for that social interaction.

Any tips for those working in real estate?

Well I’d sum it up with the 4 R’s of Real Estate in the 21st Century:


Keep it real and authentic


To adjust and adapt


Keep it relational in terms of how we connect


We can’t just rely on yesterday’s wins, we have to adjust and adapt to remain responsive to the needs of today


Mark is an award-winning social researcher, best-selling author, TedX speaker and influential thought leader, and is regularly commissioned to deliver strategy and advice to the boards and executive committees of some of Australia’s leading organisations.

Mark’s understanding of the key social trends as well as his engaging communication style places him in high demand in the press, on radio and on television shows, such as Sunrise, Today, The Morning Show, ABC News 24 and A Current Affair.

His research firm counts amongst its clients more than 100 of Australia’s largest companies and his highly valued reports and infographics have developed his regard as a data scientist, demographer, futurist and social commentator.


What Makes a City the Most Liveable?

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

What makes a state or city liveable? Is it the low crime rate, affordability, ease of travel or is it simply the weather? We have compared some of the major factors and revealed what Aussies really think.


If you take the average weekly earnings, subtract the average weekly mortgage repayments based on house costs, you find that NSW doesn’t do too well, it is earning 20% above the average, but the houses are 64% above the average, so NSW works out to be the worst in terms of income after housing. But WA is on top of the charts, with the ACT doing pretty well also.

Ease of travel

We took the centre of population of each of our capital cities, the mid-point of the population sprawl where as many people live north, as south of this point, and as many east, as west. From this centre of living we measured the average, non-peak hour driving time to the centre of the CBD marked by the GPO of each capital. We found that as we would probably expect, Sydney was the longest drive, about 33 minutes to get from the centre of population to the centre of the city, but the quickest trip of all was Brisbane with just 8 minutes.

Crime rates

This is the number of offenders per annum, per 100 people and the Territories book end the data here, with the ACT with the lowest crime rate nationally and the Northern Territory as the highest crime rate and the other states right in the middle. As measured by crime rates, the ACT is Australia’s safest place to live.


We measured this by looking at the average number of sunny days - totally clear days in a year. Tasmania not doing too well with a lot of cloudy, overcast days, but WA takes the crown with the most number of sunny days in any given year.

Watch Mark McCrindle's full interview on The Daily Edition here

Homes of the Future: Mark McCrindle discusses housing trends

Thursday, June 16, 2016

What is shaping our built environment?

The first is population growth. Australia has just reached 24 million which means we have added an extra million people in less than 3 years, and most of this growth is in our larger capital cities. This is creating a shift from suburban to urban living; from the traditional horizontal communities to the new vertical ones. In our largest capital cities, two-thirds of all new housing approvals are high or medium density rather than detached homes. This densification is creating walkable communities, multi-use areas where people live, work and play in a more localised space, and of course increased access to transit and transport hubs. The other factor shaping developments is affordability. With rising house prices, Australians are looking for financially sustainable options which meet the needs of both lifestyle and affordability, and create the flexibility for our homes to change in tune with our needs and lifestyles.

What are the current trends and will they last?

While design trends come and go with the changing fashions, there are some broader development trends that are here to stay. The increased access to open spaces, in-door out-door areas, balconies, natural light and bringing vegetation into urban environments are all timeless trends that resonates with our temperate climate and needs. Similarly, with food central to our social environment, open-plan kitchens and meal areas in homes and open social spaces in offices are trends we will see continue.

How is technology affecting it?

Today’s technology is seamlessly integrated into our lives, and we are seeing the same seamless integration into our homes. The internet of things means that lighting, sound, temperature, entertainment and security in our domestic environments are all manageable through our personal devices. The decade ahead will see our pantries and fridges talk to our devices to update shopping lists, our home entertainment experience continue playing seamlessly on our portable devices and our hydrogen cars help power our homes.

Image source: The Clipsal Smart Home range (courtesy of

What are the demographic trends?

Homes of the future will have the flexibility to accommodate multiple generations living under the one roof. They will meet the changing needs of a more culturally diverse community and have clever innovations to facilitate support to Australians living independently in their homes to a much older age than we currently see.

What does the future hold?

While Generation Z, who are just starting their careers, will have to pay more for their homes in the future, these buildings and the built environment in which they sit will far exceed what their parents experienced in their first homes. Not only will the technologies and fittings in the home be exciting but the community spaces, café culture and neighbourhood amenities will continue to adjust and adapt to meet the lifestyle expectations of the 21st Century generations.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare

Last 150 Articles


kate middleton future of education deloitte narcissism demographer Merry Christmas easter affordable long weekend environmental scanning leader consumer suburbs earn winter blues Geoff Brailey gender tertiary education click training generation alpha mccrindle research qualitative research living Engineering Manager research report typical australian mover and shaker salary nfp data NT teacher school students community engagement divorce rate brand experience transport jobs digital the hills shire 2016 census hobart social impact life local communities economy social change market research speakers Kiwi Kirsten Brewer bus outsourcing workshop statistics technology youth generational trends rule keeper weekly earnings faith small business school satisfaction futurist budget gen z belief house mother's day personalities media release conference speaker sydney speaker ageing goals Res Vis Charlotte investor Australian demographics brands skills 2020 SMSF commuters Births teaching social media socialising poor townhouses owning a home google McCrindle Speakers baby name trends emerging trends growth Hornsby Shire Council Christmas lunch grave decision Andrew Duffin 2013 selfie rise of local young australians define South Australia cancelling event financial independence australians staying home more demographic trends suburb dreaming entrepreneurs of today royal social commentary authenticity unaffordable acf15 resource royal family baby aged care national crime rates Australian Bureau of Statistics potts point office Sydney presentation Vocational education Aussie urban living index consumerism rich going out 2014 motivate moderators guide Royals builders Hills Shire Council innovation Love online shopping bureau Deaths teachers mccrindle tea emerging generations stats PSI changing face of sydney survey design newspaper fresh professional services city house price case study father's day tea australian communities trends report income social life parenting HSC ABS year 7 entertainment Work place future proofing events program global generations volunteers rising house prices greatness World Water Day holidays winter relational engage dessert VET supply and demand group tuesday population milestone ashley mckenzie presentations Valentine’s Day Generation X brand perth curiosity 1968 gen alpha christian charity home VET sector faux-ciliser rental stress not for profit financial clothing study list mentor sunny days social trends identity global financial crisis cultural diversity socialites tips ashley fell princess charlotte the changing face of prince george mortgage criminal baby name predictions census 2016 WA learner cooking cost moreton bay weather thrive celebration infographic wall the australian dream culture Financial Planning Association participants average aussie teach sentiments analysis balance high school eliane population education future report cars Word Up trends analyst wealth 2015 mythbusters census results Channel 7 eliane miles Real Estate Institute of Victoria world youth day litter wealth and income distribution families follow Tuesday Trends baby names Australian Communities Trends shopping DIY pharmacy baby names australia report Wodonga national private wealth new office finance alpha church sector wide ideas Canberra Research Executive 2016 wedding research services learning commute employment wealth and income TAS millionth Australians faux-cilising geomapping non profit trend tuesday James Ward monarchy easy rider google for education millennials conference The ABC of XYZ house price rise baby boomers media activity manly public speaker home ownership award winner language grandparents megatrends communication wolloomooloo Christchurch VIC Northern Beaches news faux-cilise norwest optus neutral bay households FOMO award names cancel plans wages housing EFF offenders ipswich sydney metro coffee energy healthy future annual income schools students ease of travel Generation Y paying to work low density Population Clock media mccrindle aged care puzzle housing market Australian Census data visualisation school shbc internet business The Daily Edition contiki Duchess of Cambridge family conferences trades social researchers aussie culture public speaking educated etiquette Financial Planning Week DESTEL marrickville FPA GPO social researcher royal influence census anzac breakfast learning styles media commentary dream cancelling plans culturally diverse Crime Rates area 1994 wage REIV Conference spirituality fears urban cost of living NSW generation Melbourne Assistant Store Manager waverton Christmas presents infographic christmas office opening politics engagement affordability staff renting holiday couple toys Education Future Forum shopper's pick quote crime Tasmania Sydney Hills Business Chamber australia cash System's Architect story TDE publication internships parents SMART crows nest proactive ACT forecast social shifts storytelling national wealth sector wide study meetings post rationalism happiness housing growth work #censusfail children retirement insight conference presentation 24 million urban living IT Specialists research Australian schools middle class twentyseventeen entrepreneurial professional development shifts overcast recap Financial Planning Association of Australia community event sunburnt country forum Australian Dream Do It Yourself responsive real keynote victoria sydney hills careers Northern Territory Queensland summer Netflix Australian Trends Social Trend priorities NBRS Architecture in depth interviews slideshare tableau world facts event trend educhat logan lalor park baby boom jobs of the future village goal vegemite local household research data staying in learn student 1975 2012 marriage employers group session global forecasting NBRS work-life sydneycity public holiday financial dreams professional Tuesday Trend travel environment future-proof research pack NEETs debate land of the middle class relevant cold housing affordability ACF English snapshot professional speaker mobile Mark McCrindle social commentator young people residents lifestyle Christmas season communicate visual financial future woolworths New Zealand home owner Macquarie University communications Northern Beaches Christian School sports future of work leadership workshop hornsby focus group entrepreneur safe demographics friends the hills tv career survey social demographic urban taskforce car earnings omnibus 2017 insights ferry equip vegetarian earning australian communities forum demographic transformations brisbane debt ultimo results future 1980 Australian Home darwin Bathburst child care data analyst sector spend in the media trends housing trends Queensland: QLD customer state change Gen X JOMO Channel Seven Wagga Wagga social research hello fresh bondi trends of 2017 pharmacies travelling domestic mccrindle in the media dare to dream society apartment Scouts researcher not-for-profit business index Australian Families blaxland challenge Skilling generations mateship medicine ageing population daily commute 10 years Northern beaches Event organisational culture high density baby names report investment trends of 2016 students cartodb financial fears focus groups SA Australia Day water food social analysis ethnography business performance friendship ACF 2016 divorce wellbeing communities daily telegraph rain innovative religion optus my business awards interactive personal growth future proof royal baby education research hills shire rent meals organisations New South Wales mining boom wealth distribution Australia Day 2017 tattoos experience states Australian Population research visualisation capital cities keynote speaker panel marriages sustainable sydney event thought leadership plans New Zeland christianity generation Z product men Western Australia Adelaide youth unemployment property pyrmont sun australian social research workplace culture social issues house prices report office space social enquiry workplace 40 million Gen Y increasing densification Real Estate collaboration graphs year 12 huffington post gold coast education sector millenials census fail sydneysiders education future train Wellington cloudy days baby name stay home leadership economic population map January 26th buildings marketing Myth REIV National Conference CBD intern social lives Sydney keynote speaker growing population emerging technologies Caregiver seasons women new york times visualisation university degree 23 million capital city community high density living collaborative population growth property market February 16 university society trends 24,000,000 education "know the times" work mates the average aussie internship high density apartments schools hopes unemployment online mythbusting property price resilience video Australian communities optimistic teleworking renter of the future suburban living Aussies know the times menai networking 2016 census results poker master repayments investing government workforce Territory