Supply and demand; Australia as an ageing nation

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

DEMAND: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

A CLEAR AGEING TRAJECTORY

Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 300,000 a year. 30 years ago, the over 65s made up just 11% of our population (one in nine persons). Today the over 65s make up 15% of our population (one in seven). Forecasts project that this cohort will make up 18% in 2027 (one in six). By 2047 one in five Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.

AGEING SOCIETY

Our median age is also increasing. Three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 31.3. Today it is 37.4 and in 2047 it is projected to be just under 40.

85+ POPULATION

The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at a faster rate than the over 65s. In 1987 there were 133,448 Australians aged over 85. Today there are four times as many, and in 2047 there will 14 times as many.

INCREASED LONGEVITY

Not only are there more older people in our nation, but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1987 was 76.3, whereas today it is 81 for a male and 85 for a female. In 2047, it is projected to 89.9.

HEALTH ADVANCEMENTS ARE INCREASING LONGEVITY

The primary enabler of this increased longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure and better public health measures. New and improved medical interventions will also contribute, as will the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of death (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF CENTENARIANS WILL KEEP THE QUEEN BUSY

In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written to Australians turning 100. This year, 2,925 Australians will turn 100 and in 10 years 5,401 will turn 100. In 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 25,938 in the year 2047.

SUPPLY: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

THE CHALLENGE OF SUPPLY

Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.

RATIO OF WORKERS TO RETIREES DECLINING

The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1975 for every person of retirement age there were 7.1 people in the working age population. By 2015 there were just 4.5 people of working age for every individual of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 2.7 people of working age for every individual at retirement age by 2055.

IMPENDING RETIREMENTS

Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 350,000 workers in the aged care sector (estimated in 2012), so this equates to an average of 11,667 retirements per year for the next 15 years. This averages to 972 farewell lunches per month!

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 129,945 workers in the next 10 years. This equates to recruiting 1,083 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 972 retiring staff per month.

That’s a total recruitment goal of 2,055 each month – adding nearly 25,000 individuals to Australia’s aged care workforce each year.

GET IN TOUCH

To find out more about McCrindle's expertise in the aged care industry, or how we can communicate these insights to your team, please get in touch.

Media Commentary from the McCrindle team

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

As Australia’s leading social researchers, the senior research team at McCrindle are actively involved in media commentary. From demographic analysis and future forecasts, to communication of key research findings and the identification of social trends, at McCrindle we are passionate about communicating insights in clear, accessible and useable ways.

Some of our recent media commentary includes:

Jobs of the future

The last few years of disruption has shown us that any role that can be replaced by technology will be.While technology is great for automating systems and replacing repetitive functions, it is not strong at adapting to complex change and engaging with people. Mark McCrindle speaks to The Daily Edition about how students can future proof their careers and skills. Watch it here.


Trends of 2016

From Donald Trump to Brexit, dabbing, bottle flipping and Pokemon Go, Mark McCrindle speaks to The Daily Edition about some of the biggest trends of 2016, including the 2016 word of the year which was Post Truth, and demographic milestones for Australia including reaching a population of 24 million people in February, and Sydney hitting a population of 5 million. Watch it here.

Trends of 2017

Rise of the local, growth of lifestyle cities, DIY everything, the Gig-economy and post-rationalism are the top five trends Mark McCrindle has identified for 2017. Mark joins the team from The Daily Edition to discuss the trends forecasted for 2017. Watch it here.



Melbourne growing faster than Sydney

After being voted the world’s most liveable city for the sixth year in a row, Melbourne property prices have grown faster than those of Sydney over the last year. With Melbourne being forecast to become Australia’s biggest city by 2050, Mark McCrindle attributes the diversified economy, lower house prices and its reputation as the fashion and cultural capital to its growth. Read the article here.


Are passive aggressive notes breaking down Sydney's sense of community?

The rise of anonymous, sarcastic signs left by Sydneysiders is seen to be breaking down communities. While this sort of behaviour is often seen on social media, Mark McCrindle says we don’t see so much of it normal civil interactions. When we are face to face, people aren’t nearly as sarcastic or nasty. Behind the venomous notes and social media posts, we really get a sense of the angst and frustration that is modern, busy stressful life. Read the article here.


Baby Name trends

Mark McCrindle has made his baby name predictions for 2017. He says longer and more culturally diverse names will be popular in 2017. Names beginning with X, Y and Z are also predicted to be huge, including Zander and Zephyr for boys, and Zyla and Zelda for girls. Read the article here.


Aussie parents are opting for sophistication and substance over quirky spellings or compound names, with gender neutral names back in vogue. Mark McCrindle predicts te top 10 ‘rising stars’ of 2017 for girls names were likely to be Addison, Penelope, Ariana, Frankie, Charlie, Elsie, Aurora, Billie, Lilian and Aisha. For the boys, McCrindle predicts Harvey, Beau, Chase, Theodore, Carter, Spencer, Ali, Harley, Darcy and Fletcher will be the rising stars for boys names next year. Read the article here.


Outsourcing

The growing trend of finding others to do the jobs we hate has made the Christmas of 2016 a far cry from festive seasons past. “As for outsourcing, that is certainly a growing trend, especially around Christmas time when the shops are busy and perhaps there is a task that we don’t feel confident in completing, that we can have someone else complete for us,” says Ashley Fell from McCrindle. Read the article here.



Home ownership and renting

Sydney is turning into a city of renters as rising prices force more people to ditch the home owning dream. McCrindle research director Eliane Miles said while home ownership was still a major aspiration, it was ­simply affordability stopping young people from buying. “We did some research that showed 90 per cent of Australians still want to strive towards owning their own home,” Ms Miles said. “It’s still the Aussie dream, it’s just more difficult and I think for young people it seems incredibly far off.” Read the article here.


The Future of Shopping

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

As Christmas approaches, so does the urgency of shopping. So what will shopping in the future look like - and will we even need shops? It is interesting to note than in an era of online shopping, we actually visit the shops more now than a generation ago. In a survey this year we found that the main connection point Australians have with their local community is not the community centre, park, school or club but the local shopping centre. A visit to the shops is not just about getting groceries- it is a social experience, an entertainment destination, a café stop-off and of course an opportunity to see, try, and experience what’s new.

The shopping experience of the future will start much earlier than the moment we enter a store. It will begin at the time we make decisions about items we buy. Increasingly, these decisions will be socially informed by recommendations made by family and friends as well as our digital communities with whom we share common interests and even available nearby shoppers.

Shopping will become a hybrid of online purchasing through mobile devices and personalised shopping apps, and real world shopping in-store. By 2026 our in-store shopping will be guided not only by our shopping list but also by applications which facilitate our shopping experience. They will be able to detect when and where we are in store and provide recommendations and discounts in real-time based on our lifestyle, our purchasing habits, household demographics and our electronically-enabled shopping trolley as we fill it. At home, intelligent appliances in our smart homes will monitor our consumption of grocery items, automatically detecting items we are running low on and based on past behaviour and clever predictions this shopping list will be automatically set up for payment and home delivery or available at convenient collection hubs.

Payments will not only be cashless but card-less - a quick swipe of our phone or device will pay the bill and receive the receipt. And best of all, in an era of driver-less cars, car share drop-off points and streamlined public transport, getting a good parking spot may even be achievable!

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

snapshot logan McCrindle Keynote Speakers Res Vis video FPA VET sector religion parents australian communities trends report goals wellbeing Maxim Accounting Hunter Valley growth of sydney report workforce sydneycity mateship local communities deloitte weather giving summer baby names Hornsby Shire Council friends organisational culture criminal travel social trends HSC ACF social life donate Sydney Hills Business Chamber Financial Planning Association of Australia innovative royal growth sector wide teaching global retail mccrinlde monarchy overcast Jura Australia World Water Day SMART Australian Census couple REIV National Conference children youth unemployment rising house prices goal narcissism staying in household eliane miles ease of travel generation alpha employmer media Australian demographics Tuesday Trends TDE the great screenage work celebration training manly Retail priorities commute investment communications infographic wall Australian community trends research data 2016 census results christmas researcher pyrmont financial planning NBRS Architecture Christmas presents sydneysiders Australian communities population map survey census data housing market grave decision social enquiry the hills community shopper's pick Christmas Stats national crime rates trends of 2016 statistics social research sector TAS wealth and income distribution sydney hills communication Gen Z Expert business performance award winner Vocational education speakers pack meetings who is generation z brands consumerism national wealth cost Territory research on coffee tv Australian Trends rich aussie culture presentations JOMO Financial Planning Association dreams Skilling workshop offenders study fears energy consumer vegetarian entrepreneurs of today research pack VET program New Zeland younger generations toys Australian Population land of the middle class trends analyst Australians dessert australian community trends report professional development hobart infographics new office volunteer builders mining boom leadership workshop national private wealth faith proactive cancelling event average sydneysider nativity scene spend google HR population milestone social shifts university organisations tertiary education trends of 2017 Channel Seven Kiwi wage careers events resilience typical australian earning digital economy youth customer REIV Conference volunteering data debt Sydney trades SRE learning housing office opening sydneysider litter outsourcing commuters women millennials Jura Coffee marriage names faux-cilising futurist change Christmas research survey design data analyst global financial crisis 10 years christianity moreton bay child care school spirituality domestic educated cica Cobbitty-Leppington cartodb baby hello fresh Queensland real financial future Word Up urban development social residents wages demographics home owner earn socialising the changing face of home ownership woolworths 1975 cost of living motivate DESTEL investing panel schools students mccrindle tea student social commentator ultimo huffington post unaffordable workplace January 26th jobs of the future tattoos baby names australia report social issues 2014 Australian Communities Trends easy rider Love career sunny days personal growth weekly earnings hills shire case study meals annual income students shopping centre market research optus my business awards English 2013 Northern Territory housing affordability research report households tuesday high school generation engage future proof geomapping thrive What is food insecurity? emerging generations cultural diveristy business easter Aussie population growth church year 7 demographic budget focus group The Daily Edition group session conference presentation surnames daily telegraph analysis TEDx award donation Engineering Manager parenting ACT university degree ferry #censusfail rental stress digital finance EFF house buildings technology population publication interactive office collaboration vegemite Research Executive world baby name income Wellington Generation X mover and shaker Australia street australian communities forum Christmas in Australia Financial Planning Week education future report responsive winter newspaper gig Australian schools happy holidays personalities community event culture resource visual collaborative media commentary internships christmas 2017 NEETs suburb leader mccrindle education young australians volunteering rain environment schools crows nest Scouts PSI forecast relevant Christmas data insights Willowdale australian poker master in the media Work place Black Friday rent holiday 2016 census paying to work Births New Zealand 2017 generations ageing population Myth social lives local community baby boomers Real Estate Institute of Victoria renting ashley mckenzie choice workers average Australian infographic millenials growing population faux-cilise keynote speaker Caregiver salary sustainable Christmas day mccrindle in the media CPI shifts capital city Deaths presentation pharmacies relational housing growth Elderslie-Harrington park business index rise of local food nfp forecasting maiden SMSF 24,000,000 clothing optimistic urban taskforce sunburnt country the lucky country marrickville mother's day the hills shire bondi seasons Education Future Forum networking environmental scanning affordable acf15 village transport commuting census healthy future work mates follow FOMO teleworking ACF2017 the australian dream cold post rationalism news social impact Lower Hunter Wodonga high density list future Australian Families online WA sector wide study 2016 government facts Netflix learning styles families going out Sydney keynote speaker anzac sun media release Assistant Store Manager property market Royals not-for-profit volunteers experience norwest cultural diversity conferences ethnography crime Wagga Wagga marketing professional speaker Christmas day weather wolloomooloo travelling water ACT Report education research authenticity census 2016 tips australia school satisfaction thought leadership educhat stay home financial fears sentiments sports coffee balance increasing densification future of education Business analysis James Ward belief unemployment house price rise trends cars Canberra work-life year 12 showreel know the times young people Charlotte conference SA speajer group do people still change their surname after marriage? christian ideas NSW wealth and income gold coast hills socialites supply and demand employmee lifestyle marriages Christmas lunch blaxland australians staying home more charity financial cancel plans Melbourne gen alpha census fail politics 23 million live the dream dream Northern Beaches maiden names Sydney population living demographer high density apartments etiquette skills shbc bureau sydney speaker global Do It Yourself wealth apartment faux-ciliser suburban living Australian Home gen z participants education future teacher food bank shopping identity potts point Christmas season housing trends 1980 System's Architect menai fresh Mark McCrindle screenagers surname local property development insight urban results ABS money moderators guide Tasmania Australia Day 2017 Australia Day emerging trends life research services not for profit house prices Real Estate baby name trends South Australia Black Friday Sales royal family hornsby NT mythbusting trend tuesday perth kate middleton bus mythbusters demography Tuesday Trend omnibus DIY Black Friday in Australia VIC Duchess of Cambridge middle class Research Director challenge equip urban living millionth TED talk rule keeper Valentine’s Day states data visualisation urban living index investor prince george non profit curiosity census results safe high density living 2015 McCrindle Speakers communities world youth day not for profit research ACF 2016 storytelling wedding social media stats focus groups divorce rate suburbs event family Gen X employers area chairty Mount Annan-Currant Hill NBRS entrepreneurial recap royal influence economic social researchers teach hopes gender men public speaking earnings megatrends entrepreneur baby name predictions Aussies demographic transformations Bathburst cash divorce emerging technologies Christchurch entertainment employment princess charlotte property australian real estate Generation Y leadersip sydney metro father's day brand brand experience keynote sydney property market daily commute IT Specialists impact culturally diverse Sydney’s south west mccrindle research sydney event intern apartments define Crime Rates "know the times" baby names report learn micro screenage global generations Merry Christmas Northern beaches Event twentyseventeen Andrew Duffin CBD speaker ageing casual cooking internship 40 million financial independence graphs Australian Bureau of Statistics breakfast low density coffee lovers society trends alpha dreaming dare to dream affordability long weekend home aged care office space medicine data car leadership changing face of sydney education sector generational trends ashley fell product financial dreams Sydney Lifestyle Study social commentary australian social research tea community engagement Kirsten Brewer Australian Dream food insecurity cancelling plans professional media activity plans house price lalor park the average aussie charities online shopping baby boom public transport professional services winter blues poor retirement conference speaker future of shopping contiki research story social analyst visualisation McCridle debate social change Gen Y New South Wales February 16 capital cities Northern Beaches Christian School greatness micro apartments small business NFP event public holiday ACF17 TEDx Speaker waverton brisbane economy language demographic trends townhouses Population Clock hunger US Social Trend social analysis average aussie Hills Shire Council quote sydney market tableau renter of the future Lower Hunter Region research visualisation future-proof TED Adelaide royal baby jobs innovation happiness new york times Western Australia owning a home wealth inequality communicate care support optus click eliane Mark McCrindle in the media Performance Sentiment Index school students 1968 professional presenters slideshare future proofing victoria Channel 7 cloudy days learner staff property price society city wealth distribution aged care puzzle neutral bay Queensland: QLD state trend social researcher holidays teachers speakers Macquarie University purpose public speaker train 2020 friendship ipswich workplace culture forum mortgage 1994 qualitative research The ABC of XYZ google for education generation Z mentor future of work in depth interviews grandparents internet gig economy darwin Geoff Brailey repayments McCrindle Speaker mobile 2012 GPO seasons greetings selfie pharmacy christmas trees 24 million engagement work from home

Archive