Demographics
Melbourne set to become Australia’s largest city
Due to Melbourne benefiting from net overseas migration, net internal migration and natural increase, it is on track to become Australia’s largest city by 2030.
While Sydney is currently Australia’s largest city, Melbourne is closing the gap and in the month of September 2030, will overtake Sydney to become Australia’s largest city by population.
Such has been Melbourne’s growth, it reached a population of five million in 2018, two years after Sydney hit the milestone. Yet it will close out this decade as Australia’s largest city by population.
Not the first time Melbourne has been Australia’s largest city
In 2030, when Melbourne overtakes Sydney to be our largest city, it won’t be for the first time. As a result of the Gold Rush and until the 1890’s, Melbourne was Australia’s largest city. But back then, Melbourne was a side show to Victoria’s growth, home to just one in four Victorians. Today three in four Victorians call Melbourne home.
Yet we are once again seeing a rebalancing of Victoria’s population beyond its capital. The future of Victoria therefore will depend on thriving regions, not just the city of Melbourne. Regional cities today offer affordability, liveability and in a work-from-home world, employability that was until recently Melbourne’s domain.
What Victoria needs to thrive in the future
To provide for this momentum back to the regions, infrastructure, housing and built amenity will be key. The internal migration to regional Victoria is comprised of people not so much moving to rural townships, but regional cities. They are seeking school options, university campuses, diverse retail offerings, business hubs and the café culture of a capital city. Melbourne was voted the world’s most liveable city for seven years in a row because of two centuries of investment and improvements in the city, and the same commitment will be required to ensure its regional cities have this world-class liveability.
There is one more thing that future Victoria will need: strong and fast connections from the regions to Melbourne and beyond. High speed rail has been shown globally to offer reliable and convenient commuting between large cities as well as a way to open up rural areas for greenfield city development. A connected state, with regional living options, within easy reach of a thriving Melbourne is a future Victoria that many are opting into today.
